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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (43365)	5/16/1998 11:42:00 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

"I find it incredible that educated people such as yourself dismiss the possibility of such an occurrence.." Pray tell, young Patrick, why you feel I dismiss such an obvious possibility? You can just as well assume others are there before you. Wander around some of the threads, look at vocal concerns expressed even at G8 meetings by our European partners who have been urging Greenspan to raise interest rates just to dampen enthusiasm. Of course, its always difficult to pin a reason on market turns (if one's histroically honest).. I tend to think they turn because they're ready to and that reasons are only what's seen outside the train as it rounds the bend. I pulled Yale Hirsch's book, Don't Sell Stocks on Monday, off my library wall this morning and out of curiosity wondered what his analysis of the May June period was. Remember that it was published in 1989. This paragraph struck me as oddly coincidental. From page 131: "I tried to pinpoint the reason for the market's weakness in May in those years and noted that a number of unsettling incidents occured during the month: a political crisis in Saigon (1966); the prelude to the Arab-Israeli War (1967; France paralyzed by civil violence (1968); Cambodian Invasion (1970); a massive peace protest in several major US cities (1971); and Watergate (1973)." So we now have Indonesia and the Starr investigations.. they fit the pattern. He then adds "The most logical reason for weak Mays, in my opinion, is that the market tends to rise sharply in bull years through the first quarter and into April, becoming overextended in May." That's certainly been the case this year also. Last, he has a note on what stocks are strong in May despite the wanning of momentum in most sectors.. autos! Then, he adds, the last couple of weeks in May are the worst with a minor rally early June that's weak then flat to down into a strong July. Fun stuff.