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To: Short A. Few who wrote (2242)5/17/1998 3:52:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe  Respond to of 5944
 
>> When will the market see it this way, your opinion?

If we step forward to the day when DSL news and views
are popping up three-a-day in everyone's bitstream and
look at what is actually happening then ... I see DSL
deployed to about 2% of the actual population ... in
some high visibility areas ... that will be enough to
shape the present attention.

When does this happen? Mumph. Roughly ... 2H97. Why?
Well ... just plot the occurrance of DSL newsbytes ...
I'll guess ... Jan=2, Feb=5, Mar=8, Apr=12, May=20, Jun=50,
July=100, ... we cross into three-a-day territory in the
next couple of months. That's the First Focus Window.

Same with cable.

What do you suppose will happen to DSL demand when 2% of
internet denizens have DSL service? That starts in June,
if GTE and US West can be believed.

Saying DSL/Cable/friends will be big is sort of like the
last message from Custer as he headed off into the bluffs
above the Greasy Grass ... "Big Village. Bring packs".

Bigger than we CAN expect ...