To: CJ who wrote (8620 ) 5/18/1998 12:26:00 PM From: Ed Frye Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 12559
>Have I flunked Investing 102B and Networking 101A, Sir ? No Counselor, but it appears you either have a burr in your saddle or your arithmentic skills need some sharpening..... >1. What recent 50% price increase? According to my notes, which may >be slightly off, the low for the last 90 days is 14.375, and for the >cal. yr. is 13.375. 15 to 23 is approximately 50% isn't it? >2. You also addressed vol as "petered out." I apologize, Sir, but I >just don't see that @ all. The pattern here [price and vol.] is >typical of the wk. b/4 options expir. -- and actually quite >encouraging. I agree w/u re: resist/supp., but place it @ 22.5, and >am encouraged by the [sans options] steadiness. the volume has dropped from 2to6 times normal to .5 times - this decline is significant isn't it? do you think it a coincidence that price turned sideways when volume turned down? and i don't believe this decline in volume can be explained entirely by the monthly options cycle - but i have no problem with you believing it... as to 22.5 v 22, chart reading is nowhere's near a precise science to bother quibbling about 22.5 v 22, IMHO..... >3. < if [post earnings buyers] sit tight support will remain solid - >if they sense a short-term top and jettison FORE could revisit teens> >Again , Sir, given the post-earnings pattern [while factoring the monthly options cycle and the fact that it has not yet been a full month since erngs. anncmt.], I am baffled at what would cause the "peb's" to sense a s/t top: haven't we been moving sideways for a couple of weeks now after a strong rally? that's all i meant by a short-term top..... >If you are referring to individual peb's, that would depend on their objectives; i was and yes it would i.e., many momentum players chase a stock with good vol/price action following postive news re: fundamentals.... >if your reference is to institutional peb's, IMHO, they are quite pleased and would be more likely to acquire a more sizeable position than to sell at this level. very possible.... This shouldn't be necessary but apparently it is - Let me state for the record that all my opinions are offered as a FWIW and i try to make that clear by using words such as "my guess" or "more/less likely" --- i don't claim to be an expert about anything and rarely do i make flat out deterministic statements that such and such is going to happen before it happens - i'm not sure what i said to make you want to challenge my simple facts regarding 50% price increases followed by significantly decreasing volume or my opinions regarding short-term future price movements but you should know me well enuff to know that i know that i don't "know" what's going to happen next with 100% certainty, nor do i pretend to know.. is that enuff "knows" 4/ya?