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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FJB who wrote (5443)	5/17/1998 6:17:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

I have read only comments on Kurlak's comment not Kurlak comments themselves (ML does not consider me a "preferred client" just a "Private something or another <G>). But in any event, the gist as I understand it is that INTC's capacity alone is larger than the demand for CPU, and if one add to that the NSM and AMD capacity there is oversupply in CPU capacity. That has a lousy habit of driving prices down (as everyone tries to keep or increase market share). Add this to existing overcapacity in other sectors like drams and now, I am told even foundry, and you get a glut that until absorbed, causes the ASP of semi to decline, over all sales decline as well even in face of actual unit shipment increase. Right now (a quarter maybe) I think that is a pretty good overvue of what is happening. It is not a good picture of what is going to happen, however. On the bright side, the BB ratio for the equipment sector at around .8 is where the segment traditionally turns around. I think that in 1985 it went a little lower, but I cannot remember the exact figure. Any one has these? Zeev

To: FJB who wrote (5443)	5/17/1998 11:44:00 PM
From: ET	Respond to of 10921

robert.....you'll get no where arguing with zeehead... ..i've told him a number of times that his bearish outlook on this industry has caused him to miss out on some HUGE UPSIDE MOVES,35 to 55% moves in 4 months was not good enuf for him.... ...he just prefers to stay bearish [ someday he'll be right, i guess]... .. he should be buying canned goods, candles, and gold and start preparing for the meltdown, meanwhile us crafty folk will continue to build our porfolios........................