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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (3677)	5/18/1998 9:47:00 AM
From: see clearly now	Respond to of 9980

"...so I wonder why this Time Magazine poll is being taken." looking to fabricate an enemy?..its happened before...

To: Tommaso who wrote (3677)	5/19/1998 8:53:00 PM
From: FACTUAL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

That is not quite correct. Thirty years from now the economy to watch is China. They will have finished integration of HongKong, Taiwan and Macau by then and be the major military power, Incidents like the Spratly Islands , Tibet, Arunachal Pradesh, Senkaku islands etc will multiply. The only balance in this region can come from India in the West and Japan in the east ( subject to a change/ reinterpretation in the Japanese Constitution). No one can cite military takeovers by any other protoganists of the region. Ultimately we ( the US ) can save US blood being spilt as long as we are supporting the Indians and the Japanese ( perhaps surreptiously a la Iran-Contra). Witness the Nye initiatives and the definition of what is to be the zone of security that is causing so much concern in Beijing today. While jobs and the stock market is the fascination of most of us and Seattle ( Boeing ) and Detroit ( Cars ) and the Valley ( high tech) will support China- appropriately based on the theory that increasing GNP induces moderation we all would be better of if we read the book the coming conflict with China. Note that virtually all of Japans imports come from the four straits near the South China seas, permitting China to effectively blackmail Japan. We are not going to sacrifice Los Angeles or NewYork for Tokyo, Osaka, or New Delhi. Just as with Nato where we were forced to deploy theatre nuclear forces as it was realized we were not going to sacrifice any part of the US for any part of Europe, current developmants suggest that the Indians and the Japanese will have developed their own force de frappe. Pakistan exists in this picture strictly as a proxy for the Chinese and the impact an Islamic bomb may have in the Middle east.