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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (8949)	5/19/1998 8:56:00 AM
From: Dale Baker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

I doubt he will myself, given the absence of "smoking gun" economic data to justify the financial turmoil it would cause. Washington doesn't like turmoil, at least not problems which they cause intentionally. It's the unintentional chaos which follows that makes life interesting. Said the USG employee.....

To: Joey Two-Cents who wrote (8949)	5/19/1998 10:49:00 AM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

I say he goes for it and raises rates a nominal 1/4%. Joey, no one will ever accuse you of just following the crowd. I sure would be happy if you are right, but it doesn't seem likely. It does seem ridiculous to me that the papers this morning would attribute yesterday's weakness to "Fed fears". I don't think anyone long the market thinks there's any chance of a rate hike - even a 1/4 point - so who was afraid of the Fed yesterday? The bond market didn't seem at all concerned anyway. The big question, of course, is whether the market will use the "news" of no action as an excuse to rally. Alternatively, is this morning's rally the crowds "buying the rumor" and will they later "sell the news"? Bob