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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: eRM Solutions who wrote (1576)	5/19/1998 12:07:00 PM
From: Trader Dave	Respond to of 6974

I agree that the cis space is a multiple larger than erp. i happen to think that it is 5 x larger. However, I do not believe that sebl is going to win with absolute certainty. Vantive has no product integration risks at this point. Sebl's are extensive, we'll have to agree to disagree. But I can't think of a software merger of overlapping equals that didn't face significant challenges. I find it interesting that you feel that SEBL has so much stronger upper management. Are you using integrity as your metric? SEBL has strong marketing in the fastest growing segment, SFA. CIS and the field service/dispatch subset are growing quickly, but are just starting to hit their acceleration. It will be interesting to see what SEBL's year over year license revenue growth is in the December quarter. I'll bet it ends up as a blend of the sebl/scopus current growth rates. I'd bet Vantive's year over year growth rate is very similar comparing 1998 to 1997. Watch out for the ugly combination of integration challenges and declining rates of growth. Too much risk for me. TD

To: eRM Solutions who wrote (1576)	5/19/1998 12:10:00 PM
From: Shege Dambanza	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

...SFA/CIS SAVES money... Really? Do you have any facts/numbers to support this, or is your evidence anecdotal, or are you repeating marketing hype you've read? I'm not aware of any independent study that has found that assertion to be true. If you can point me to something I can read about this I would really appreciate it. Secondly, my experience is that companies buy SFA not to save money, but to increase revenues. Problem tracking/resolution systems were originally marketed as cost-saving tools, but once vendors realized that the cost-savings just weren't there they changed the pitch to "enhanced customer satisfaction", "customer relationship management" etc. with the promise that satisfied customers are loyal customers. Is your experience different, and if so, what have you observed?