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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor Industry Sales Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cbstock who wrote (15)	5/21/1998 7:32:00 AM
From: stockaholic	Respond to of 105

Electronic Components (SIC367) - Signs of More Temperate Growth Ahead Industrial production in the electrical components industry rose by 0.3% between February and March. This was the smallest month-to-month output gain recorded by the industry since March 1996. Clearly the well-documented global problems of the semiconductor industry are beginning to have a significant impact on the level of SIC 367 output in the United States. March 1998 output was still a very strong 30.9% higher than in March 1997. Review of historical trend numbers shows the loss of momentum, however. The latest month's over-the year gain was the smallest recorded since last February, and there's every reason to believe that the downward trend will intensify between now and the fall of this year. Continued fallout from the Asian financial crisis has already led to lower component prices and slower worldwide gains in the value of industry shipments; now we're seeing that this translates into more competition on the production side for U.S.-based manufacturers. Consequently, we're looking for SIC 367 growth rates to slow moderately this year and next. Still, the insatiable appetite of end-market applications is likely to yield production gains in the 20%-25% range-undoubtedly at a much lower average dollar value, however. Source- Electronic Business - May 20 , 1998

To: cbstock who wrote (15)	5/21/1998 8:11:00 AM
From: stockaholic	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 105

cb- Im an investor with about 20% of my portfolio in semiconductor related stocks. I get the data from all over the internet. I try to make a habit of listing the source. The downturn, starting with memory chips, then graphics chips, communication IC's,and now the general chip market,will eventually play itself out.Weakness in passives and some connectors has also recently been seen. Another hint at a bottom was given yesterday when ADI announced weakness in earnings. Analog chips had been considered, a "safer haven" for those interested in chip investing.I don't see any major segments or related areas now that are showing much strength. The question now seems to be : How long will the weakness, which might finally be observed as a " broad weakness", persist? To answer that is very difficult if not impossible.My personal view is that we are now in a general industry bottoming phase which will last a few more months and then we will see gradual and spotty improvements in certain segments.However,the semiconductor market is so huge,complex and diverse that it's hard for me to get a handle on it with any conviction, so I keep posting data I find relevant, hoping to somehow catch a new insight or trend developing that lets me see beyond the doom and gloom ,and the hype and optimism , into some kind of elusive logical indication as to whether or not the industry is improving or still headed south. One thing I have noticed is that , besides being revised often,the figures are historically erratic which makes it very difficult to nail down a long term trend, such as a sustaining recovery.