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Technology Stocks : Compaq -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maxer who wrote (26488)	5/22/1998 6:09:00 PM
From: ed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

First , you should understand that CPQ is no longer a PC company, its business model will be quite different than DELL , those PC makers, in the future. Secondly, we should not look at PCs in the traditional way any more, PC will be working as a major server in every family. Think about that PC can be used as as a communication carrier for teleconference, video phone, real time digital broadcasting tools from the internet.PCs is no longer served as a tool for word processing, calculation, data storage only anymore. The market will be much broader in the future. Do you like the feature in the PC that you can play bridge in real time with your friends in Europe or Asia through a four way communicational channel. The future PC will also serve as a tool for entertainment, and not just limitted to the professional anymore. Think about that how many families in the US have more than two TVs nowadays !!!!! The rest , I will leave for you to figure out. Also , if you read the long term chart carefully, you will see that most of the time in the past 8 years, CPQ start to climb in the time frame of June to Aug, and flat out in Dec, and pull back from Jan to the beginning of summer. Why ? Because PC is a seasonal cycle business !!!!!

To: Maxer who wrote (26488)	5/23/1998 12:38:00 PM
From: Pruguy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 97611

Your argument is logical and simple to understand. I disagree though. The business really hasn't changed much at all. Here are a few of the similarities all along history of the pc business. 1) prices dropping, 2) increase in number of units sold, 3) increase in potential consumers, 4) increase in use of machine, 5) increase in power needed to run typical applications, 6increase in uses of the machines Compaq has flourished throughout the 90's because of these issues and I don't anticipate any of these issues changing for many years. I suspect the aforementioned pullbacks were during periods when there was doubt about the prosperity of the industry. These have ALL proven to be excellent entry points and I have never heard one argument that had any credibility to it that supports the theory that "this time is different" History tends to repeat itself and my felling is 12 months from now this will have looked like a no-brainer.