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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FR1 who wrote (7882)	5/23/1998 1:58:00 AM
From: Alan Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

I've read speculation that the DOJ feels it blew the IBM case by lacking specific goals and therefore getting caught up in an endless litigation. This rings true to me based on their recent actions. It seems Klein is trying hard to keep the case limited in the hope that this will translate to a quick resolution. This is proper strategy IMO, but will likely still be too little too late. It now appears the DOJ has little hope of forcing changes to Windows 98 until October, giving it 3 or 4 months on the shelves. At that time, forcing "downgrade" type changes is going to look even lamer than it does now. This is especially true if it turns out to be a hit, which I believe could easily happen. MSFTs previous "stability and performance" releases, such as DOS 6.0, Windows 3.1, and Windows NT 3.51 were revenue blockbusters. Everyone who has a Windows 95 bug peeve, or wants a new device, or wants the better load times, is going to be tempted to move to Windows 98. Considerably more time than usual has been spent on the Windows 98 upgrade code, which is smart since if customers hear its painless they are much more likely to take the plunge and fork over the $90. Around October we could be looking at a no-lose situation for MSFT. If it looks like they're winning the case, they win obviously. But even if it looks they are losing all or part of it, there could be a frenzy to get Windows98 before any injunction takes place. This is ironic since motivating people to move from their "working" systems is, by MSFTs own admission, one of their biggest ongoing problems.

To: FR1 who wrote (7882)	5/23/1998 4:25:00 AM
From: Hal Rubel	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74651

How High Will Microsoft Fly? RE:'Smart investors should wise up. MSFT won the minute Justice decided not to press for a suit breaking up MSFT." I am very inclined to agree: Microsoft won by not being broken up. And it did so in spite of itself. (Though there is still the issue of bringing the way Microsoft dictates contracts into the modern American way.) What Microsoft Lost: 1) Its Aura of Assendency 2) The Automatic Presumption of Business & Moral Sainthood for Bill Gates. 3) Its Total & Unrestricted Business Freedom from now on. 4) Its Total Dominance over Box Makers. 5) The Unquestioned Good Will of the Non-computer Aware American Public. 6) Its Potential for Unlimited Unchallenged Growth. And, 6) Its currently Outstanding PE Ratio, which may well have peaked historically along with its apparent prospects. It no longer looks like Microsoft will be able to dominate any industries that it is not already dominant in. We are talking here about Broadcasting, Telecommunications, Advertising, and the News Media. Microsoft has reached a new level of maturity in its life as a firm. Historians may well say that this is the very week that Microsoft reached its high water mark in terms of amazing growth, though it will continue to grow. There seems to be handwriting on the wall. My guess guess is that 2 years from now a bigger & better Microsoft will be selling at a hefty 30 times earnings, and rewarding shareholders with a healthy steady return. History was made this week, and you and I were there. Good Night. HR