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Technology Stocks : Manugistics, Inc. (MANU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Hua who wrote (638)	5/23/1998 12:27:00 PM
From: Big Sky	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 1670

RE: DCB...Looking at the charts for RMDY, CLFY, SCOP and RATL, it looks like a mixed bag to me......Having recently spent 3 years of my life in the front office space I have followed these companies closely and have kicked myself for not making more money off the wild swings in their stock. Here's my crude analysis (my apologies to Clam) RMDY's big drop to 12.70 on 1/27/98 was followed by a DCB immediately to 15.00 during the ensuing 2 days. Now trading at 17.50 for a 35% gain. CLFY's big drop to 7.00 in April '97 was followed by a DCB to 11.00 and a further rise to 13.00 in early May. Closed Fri at 13.00 for a 86% gain. If you had bought SCOP after it's big drop to 23.00 on 9/26/97, you would have lost over 50% by 10/6 when it closed at 12.00, and still wouldn't be back to break-even after SEBL's buyout. Closed Fri at 18.00 for a 22% loss. RATL initally dropped to 9.60 on 10/9 and got a little DCB to 10.80 on 10/14 only to fall again even further to 8.10 on 10/27. Closed Fri at 16.00 for a 67% gain. Looks like these big drops can definitely provide nice entry points for those with confidence in the long term outlook, but they don't appear to be "sure things" for short term traders. Are there any TA'ers out there (Clam, Michelle, TD?) that can offer guidance on which stock will give a DCB and which ones won't? Perhaps volume on the day of the drop can tell us? I've often suspected that the MMs set the opening price on the day after a negative news event a little below market to give them a chance to pick up a little inventory during the panic and sell it for a profit a little later in the day during the DCB. But then again, maybe I've just been listening to too many conspiracy theories! FWIW, I bought an initial position mid day Friday at 29 hoping for a DCB and will double up if it falls below 25. I believe in the SCM space and MANU. If ITWO follows MANU down I will buy ITWO also, just looking for a good entry point.

To: Tom Hua who wrote (638)	5/23/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: Sabrejet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1670

Are you short this or just spreading more news when the stock is down. You state "Curtis, I don't believe MANU's problems are temporary and a quick fix will do" but then support your "conjecture" with nothing but PR and guess work. "There may be a DCB next week, but it doesn't look good beyond that" Well, I'm waiting for a valid reason. If your reasons are strictly tied to "feel" then state that. It doesn't read well. MANU will bounce due to the fact that part of the problem was due to not closing orders in time. That doesn't mean business was non-existant it means next quarter will reflect orders from this quarter. Employment issues, ie. expansion is a plus in the long term. The training and expenses associated with this created many of the problems as well. The haircut this thing got presents a very good buying opportunity. It's always tough for most people to buy after a drop like that but that's when one has to buy. All those that bought INTC @95+ or DELL @95+ that's what I call high risk. Great companies but bad entry points. sz