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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (43812)	5/23/1998 2:08:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Hi James,..Re:<< watch the price of crude oil. >> It is absolutely true that the decreased price in crude has resulted in an indirect tax cut for Americans; however, I'm not sure that it can be tied directly to a future rollover in the S&P unless we would get a spike as in the 1991 Gulf War. The GCSI is 43.5% weighted in petroleum and the weekly chart looks bearish. barchart.com Also, the gains the overall market made last year were made with crude in the 20 - $21/bbl range along with interest rates above 7% a couple of times. chart5.bigcharts.com:80/report?r=chart&onbad=badsymbol&country=us&time=10&freq=1&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&ma=4&maval=9&uf=7168&lf=1&type=2&style=3&size=2&symb=TYX&comp=&sid=11421&sec=x&xyz=11559687&s=26882 So, while I agree that Tyx (interest rate) is sensitive to crude prices, I think that we have now too many off-setting factors which tend to keep things in balance. Also, Fed Chairman Greenspan watches scrap metal prices for hints of coming producer price increases. g Regards, Lee