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To: Lee who wrote (43820)	5/23/1998 7:06:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Lee ; It's not tied so closely in most cases it can be 4 to 6 months or more before the effects come home, or even longer. Take out the knee jerk re actions and smooth out the crude price to get a 200 MA. Had crude stayed up above the $21 point for much longer than it did we might still be digging our way out from a huge sell off instead of correction we had in April 97. In the early 70s when they jacked the price of crude up and kept it there it took all most 10 years to pull out of that tail spin. I remember it good, heck 87 was just a quick drop that didn't last near as long, but that seems to be what all the gurus talk about. Shorter term I think the value of the Dollar has the most effect, believe me the European powers would love to kill the dollar. Jim