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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Barbara Barry who wrote (43821)	5/23/1998 3:08:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 58727

Mom is in Atlanta, telling fortunes like Madame Marie down in Asbury. She's an astrologer. All the weirdos descended on Georgia for the annual world congress of crystal ball gazers. The problem I see with that site is the fact they are predicating the patterns, most likely, on a bull phase. So the probabilities for a correction is remote per the data. This technique (although I use a variant) excludes external events such as slowing earnings, political unrest, currency issues and the like. That is to say, one could assign a high probability to things staying in the status quo, but when the long shot hits it's often a humdinger. That's sort of what I meant. I look at prob and stat each day to presume the odds of the market moving to such and such a level, but very often the low prob odds of....let's say 20% that the market will decline more than 10 SPX points....when that long shot of 20 % hits, my experience is look out because it won't stop at 10 points. So, it's sort of like being at the track. Usually if you bet the favorites you win a little but just a little. Usually when you bet the long shot you lose but when it comes in then you can wash down that ballpark frank with a dash of Dom.