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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19649)	5/23/1998 3:54:00 PM
From: andy kelly	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gosh Jacob I was just expecting a yes or no answer! As always, enjoy your posts. As a devil's advocate, I would have to say that you seem to be projecting the future based entirely on the past. Maybe things will be different this time? andy

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19649)	5/23/1998 10:15:00 PM
From: Big Bucks	Respond to of 70976

Jacob, A very eloquent and detailed argument. Is AMAT over valued at $32? IMO, yes. Will the stock drop into the teens? My "guess" probably not, but I would borrow all I could get if it did and be willing to wait out the upturn, after all Y2K is only 18 months away. Barring a total world wide economic collapse it is likely that the semi's will recover within the next 12-18 months as newer technologies become reality. The next meaningful technology that should stimulate the chip industry will be cable modems and satellite/rf internet bandwidth enhancing technologies. These are right around the corner, so to speak, and fall well within the 18 month timeframe. As the demand for instantaneous video conferencing and information communication increases so will the demand for chips and next generation enabling equipment. At that time $32 will look cheap by comparison. In any case any purchase in the $20's should be considered a mid/long term bargain. I really hope we see the mid/low 20's, the sooner the better. BB

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (19649)	5/24/1998 8:01:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob: Re:" I believe that sometime in 1998 or 1999, we will see a 20-30% correction in the S&P 500, caused by a slow-down in earnings and/or wage inflation causing a series of Fed hikes. I don't know when, but I don't see any way to avoid one or the other. That kind of correction pulls everything down. Therefore, I'm positioning myself to lose the least money when the S&P hits 800. I'm hoping that INTC's resistance line at 70, which has held through a steady onslaught of bad news for the last 12 months, will hold. The worst downside I see is 60, which would be only a 20% decline from my 72 entry point (next week I'll get that price)." With a 20% - 30% decline in the markets that you are projecting, what you are forecasting in essence is a bear market and not a correction. I wonder what kind of duration you are forecasting as well for this "correction?" Will it be like 1973 and 1974? Sounds like it. If I were forecasting a bear market of that magnitude and duration, the last thing I would be doing is shopping for any stock. I would be selling. Well, I see my AMAT thread contrary indicator is at work. AMAT's cc forecast for the future has obviously caused some impatient investors to bail and seek cover. The thread is downright bearish. I think that it is interesting to note that AMAT has bought back its stock recently at an average price at about $30.15. I will keep that in mind when I add to my position in the coming weeks.