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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (19654)	5/24/1998 8:58:00 AM
From: H James Morris	Respond to of 70976

Justa < I think that it is interesting to note that AMAT has bought back its stock recently at an average price at about $30.15. I will keep that in mind when I add to my position in the coming weeks. > Where did you get that info? How many shares have they bought back?

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (19654)	5/24/1998 1:00:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Justa: re:"Will it be like 1973 and 1974?" I'm not arrogant enough to think I can tell exactly when the next recession and bear market will happen, or how long it will last. But I don't believe in "New Ages", and I don't believe "everything's different now, the business cycle is dead". Yes, we are seriously overdue for a 1973-type recession. It's been 25 years since all the fat (KO) and silliness (YHOO) were wrung out of the market (1990 was too short and shallow to do it). Just like Japan in the 1980s, everyone is ignoring valuation indicators and expecting liquidity to propel stocks up forever. House of cards. I've been steadily selling stocks I thought were overvalued, and am now in 45% cash. I started shorting, for the first time, this year. But I believe in the discipline of remaining 100% in the market at all times, as the only possible way to fully benefit from the upturns. That's why I'll be buying INTC soon. I bailed and sought cover (sold my AMAT) at 37.5. If I was still holding, I would not sell at 33, but wait till the stock next approaches its 38-40 resistance level. You may get another chance or two, before the stock goes to 13 (VVBG). If I was still holding INTC, I'd continue holding at these levels. And when I buy INTC at 72, I'm quite prepared to see 65 or 60 or whatever, and continue holding, because I'll see 200 eventually. Yes, the thread, and the analyst community, are beginning to get impatient with AMAT. For many months, every time the stock hits 39, we have numerous posts crowing "new all-time highs next month!" Hasn't happened, and won't (this year). re: "The thread is downright bearish": No, the thread is solidly bullish. Everyone, even me and BB and teri and jtechkid, are long-term bulls on AMAT. We just recognise the cyclical nature of the industry, and are looking for a better entry price. Could you post the site where you follow AMAT stock buybacks? That's very interesting. By "recently", you must mean last January, since that was the last time we saw 30 or below. I would assume they know better than anyone on this thread, including me, when the stock is undervalued. Thanks for the response.

To: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote (19654)	5/24/1998 9:30:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Justa, Where did you get the average price of $30.15? On the CC they said they purchased $63M worth of their own stock during the past qtr., but to my knowledge gave no number of shares purchased. exchange2000.com Re:Well, I see my AMAT thread contrary indicator is at work. AMAT's cc forecast for the future has obviously caused some impatient investors to bail and seek cover. The thread is downright bearish. This thread is bearish? I really hadn't noticed<GGG> Seriously, during the last downturn, people were acquiring the stock and were patient to wait for years to see a 3 fold increase. Now it seems nobody wants to touch the stock unless they are guaranteed a 3 fold increase in 6 mos., with prices in the teens. Wishful thinking IMO. Also to be noted is the fact that AMAT hit and bounced off of its prior low of 21 and x/eights. It did not languish in that area for long before moving up to reasonable levels. To wait for a PSR of 1 with the upturn less than 2 years away is really wishful thinking IMO. If we use an assumption of eps of $1.35 for FY98 and assume AMAT will increase its eps peak to peak by 2.5 times(an approximation using historical #'s), AMAT should have eps in the $5.00+ range sometime in the 2002-2003 range. A four fold increase in earnings 4-5 year timeframe. Annualized eps growth over the coming years of about 40%. And yet, even after stating my reasons, many have criticized me for being an unrelenting bull. But they are not looking at the facts or are blind not to notice that this stock should not trade at a PSR of 1 or near 1 at this point in the cycle. It is because of AMAT's ability to weather these storms that it is my contention that AMAT should be put in a different corner than the rest of the semi-equips, and judged more by p/e than PSR. PSR is fine for when there are no earnings on the horizon. That is not the case now for AMAT, even with the most bearish scenario. Regards, Brian