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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Moominoid who wrote (3820)	5/24/1998 12:27:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

David, it took Mexico about a year to recover from their tail spin. I think each country will have different rates of recovery. Korea will probably be back in a growth mode after 12 to 18 months of negative growth in GNP, this because the Chaebols are consolidating, selling assets to foreigners, bringing in foreign partners and behaving quite pragmatically. The main problem is Japan, which failure to get back on a normal growth track and open their domestic markets will slow down the whole region. It seems that finally, the Japanese are starting to see the light. Some of the major banks have just taken monstrous write off (yet still have more than 2/3 of their non performing on their books even after these write offs). I am actually starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel. If Japan funds decide to hold the 15,000 on the next attack on the Nikkei, that would be for me a technical signal that something is changing there. Zeev

To: Moominoid who wrote (3820)	5/24/1998 3:04:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

David, Well this article supports your theory about a slow recovery. Sounds pretty negative and sounds like Deutsche Bank doesn't expect recovery anytime soon. I don't think it's too well known, but the the two countries with the most exposure to Indonesian debt are, Japan and Germany. I forgot the exact figures concerning Germany's exposure. I just remember being surprised that they were second in line, behind Japan. I found the increased demand for autos, energy, and telecommunications (1996) that came from the Asian sector, pretty amazing! It's in the third paragraph. Startling figures. It's another reaons I'm still concerned that the full effects of the Asian crisis still haven't been felt, yet, on US shores. MikeM(From Florida) >>Deutsche Bank Sees Asian Crisis Spreading ROME, May 24 (Reuters) - The Asian economic crisis is worsening and could spread to other emerging markets, said an economist at Deutsche Bank who is also secretary of the steering committee of Indonesia's bank creditors, in a newspaper interview. ''Two days ago the Russian prime minister said that with Asia's economic slowdown triggering a decline in prices for raw materials (like oil), Russia also risks a crisis,'' Kenneth Courtis told Rome daily La Repubblica. ''In the next weeks and months, I think we'll hear a lot of other people saying the same thing.'' Courtis said that in 1996, 48 percent of the increase in world demand for automobiles came from Asia, along with 52 percent of the increase in energy demand and 57 percent of the increase in demand for telecommunications. Courbis noted that Russia needed oil prices to remain at $18 per barrel, and that they have fallen to $12 per barrel, the article said. When asked whether the resignation of former Indonesian president Suharto has put an end to the most acute phase of the country's crisis, he said it was ''too early to say.'' ''The situation has been made more difficult by the deterioration of the real economy,'' he said. Deutsche Bank co-chairs the steering committee of Indonesia's bank creditors and will host the next round of talks on rescheduling Indonesia's $80 billion in private sector debt in Frankfurt in the first week of June. On the positive side, there is strong economic growth in two-thirds of the G7 countries and the U.S. Federal Reserve has the necessary margin to reduce interest rates if need be, Courtis said.<<