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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17739)	5/24/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: neverenough	Respond to of 25960

I sure wouldn't sell now, as a matter of fact I will continue to nibble all the way down. I'm also starting to nibble at SFAM & PLAB. It may be early but I have a 2 to 3 year time frame, and looking out that far these prices seem like a FIRE SALE to me! Nigel

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17739)	5/24/1998 1:29:00 AM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 25960

Zeev -- I think you're right. I just posted some random research on Asia and Japan to the Ascend thread, but think it's appropriate here, too. nikkei.co.jp nikkei.co.jp nikkei.co.jp >>>From the daily news: May 22, 1998 Tokyo ToExtend Economic Aid To Jakarta After Order Restored To Country TOKYO (Nikkei)-The Japanese government will begin extending previously promised economic assistance to Indonesia once the country has been restored to order, government sources said Thursday. Japanese Foreign Ministry officials said that the new president, B.J. Habibie, should make the swift rehabilitation of the Indonesian economy his first priority. Tokyo hopes the new administration will fully implement economic reforms>>> nikkei.co.jp <<< From the daily news: May 22, 1998 Japanese Banks Set To Resume Operations In Indonesia TOKYO (Nikkei)-Japanese banks plan to resume business operations in Indonesia on Friday, expecting social unrest to subside with the resignation of President Suharto, bank sources said. >>> nikkei.co.jp From the daily news: May 22, 1998 Indonesia's Habibie Pledges To Honor IMF Accords JAKARTA (Nikkei)-Indonesia's new president, B.J. Habibie, said Thursday that his government would carry out economic and other reforms outlined in its agreements with the International Monetary Fund. Addressing the nation in his first televised appearance since succeeding Suharto, Habibie pledged: "The government will continue to carry out all the commitments we have agreed upon with international entities, in particular by implementing the economic-reform program reached with the IMF." Habibie expressed a strong resolve to overcome the nation's economic crisis and said his government would root out "corruption, collusion and nepotism." The new president sought the support of the Indonesian people, saying that he would form "a responsible government in accordance with the ethics to which we all aspire." Habibie also made an overture to the student protest movement. "The students' struggle to speed up the reform process was a wind that will lead us into the 21st century," he said. >>> In the chip sector: <<< Saturday, May 23, 1998 Volume 3 No:682 Issued: 10:00 a.m. JST NEC To Invest 300 Bln Yen In 256MB Chip Production TOKYO (Nikkei)-NEC Corp. (6701) will invest more than 300 billion yen in output facilities for 256 megabit DRAM chips in Japan and the U.S., and start mass production in about two years, it was learned by The Nihon Keizai Shimbun on Friday. The company may also make 256MB DRAMs at a joint venture chip plant in Shanghai. The Chinese plant will initially produce 64 megabit DRAMS when it comes on stream in February 1999. The Tokyo-based electronics giant will install a 256MB DRAM facility at its Kumamoto plant, with mass production scheduled to commence in summer 2000. The company will construct a similar facility on a site adjacent to its California chip plant, and move into full production from early 2001. Monthly production at the Japanese and U.S. plants will total more than 10 million 256MB DRAMS by the end of fiscal 2001. Although many chipmakers in Japan and South Korea are retrenching ahead of the expected long-term downturn in the memory market, NEC is making money on its chip operations and aims to lead the market in next-generation memories. The company will also invest around 300 billion yen in output facilities for next-generation integrated circuit systems for home electronics, in anticipation of higher demand as a result of the increasing digitization of consumer electronics. (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Saturday morning edition)>>>>

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17739)	5/24/1998 10:46:00 AM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 25960

Zeev.. I've been trying to think of the opposite signal to buying when there's blood in the streets. As you point out, buying when blood is near the knees gets better prices than when its at your feet because the last optimist needs to throw in the towel. So too, the last pessimist needs to capitulate, the good news has to flow in the streets and pile up around the knees to signal the right time to sell. Of course that leads to major criticism and peer group pressure, which in itself may be the best sign. Meanwhile, back within the bowels of the company, the workers punch their time cards, oblivious to the high minded games that swirl about the company like electrons changing energy states and orbits. They get out a 5:00PM, wonder for a moment why the second shift parking is thinner, then go for a Budweiser and watch Seinfeld. Jim

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17739)	5/24/1998 10:12:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, where do you see the blood now, closer to the knee or the ankle? And moving in which direction? Maybe we have a new indicator, know only to a privvy few. Each day Zeev will log on and say something like knee-down, or shin-up.<GGG> BK

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (17739)	5/25/1998 12:04:00 AM
From: Yakov Lurye	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 25960

Zeev, there's no such thing as best place ot best time to buy. We'd both been wrong trying to predict stock bottom quite a few times in the last six months. Luckily, it is a busy thread and our predictions get quickly buried in the 10,000+ messages posted since October. I'd been averaging down from 30 in October all the way to 15 in January, periodically declaring that buying at whatever was the current level is safe. Was wrong most of the time, moreover, my buying was based on an outdated CYMI business model (single product, way too optimistic forecast of number of lasers to be sold in 98), yet eventually I'd sold 2/3 of my position above 27 and made a profit. Now chart looks bleak again, earnings estimates for 98 are a shadow of predictions in October of 97 - yet I'd restored my position buying at 20 and at 17+. Why? Because I gave up on predicting the bottom. All I am pretty sure of is that CYMI goes down when semis are selling off and rebounds when the big money rotates back into the sector. This had happened before and there are good chances it will happen again. If Kurlack is right and SOX is going to 200, CYMI will get cheaper and you may get your target of 13. Yet, I expect to see CYMI eventually selling well above my 18.5 current average - possibly quite soon if SOX bottoms out now. 275 seemed to hold all day on Friday. If, on the other hand, I would be following your beginning of the year opinion (CYMI going to test 13 by March), I would miss the runup from 15 to 30 and be still out of stock (I know, I could buy Pfizer or ENMD instead with this money and be better off <G>) Regards, Y.