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Technology Stocks : Discuss Year 2000 Issues -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Mansfield who wrote (1902)	5/24/1998 7:25:00 AM
From: Steve Woas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9818

Found the following post on Usenet: Gartner Group now estimates that the rule of thumb for average year 2000 costs is $6.46 per line of code-nearly six times higher than its original estimate. -------- Every step of the way all the estimates have been off. Time, resources, budgets etc. Now you can throw all those lame budget estimates right out the window. More than likely they were based upon the conventional assumption of about $1.10 per LOC. Eraly on in the remediation process, no one knew what the actual costs would turn out to be. They guessed. They guessed wrong. Gartner estimates they are off by a factor of SIX. Let's see what this means. If Citicorp says it will spend $600 million based upon a cost of $1.10 per LOC and the TRUE figure is more like $6 then their actual budget would be around $3.6 BBBBBBILLION. AHHHHH! Even Carl Sagan would have trouble syaing Billions and Billions and Billions. This RADICALLY changes the face of all remediation. This is not merely bad news. This is absolutely CATASTROPHIC. The federal government says it will spend $5 Billion. All along I have been saying that the actual cost will be somewhere between $30 and $50 Billion based upon reasonable data. But remember, the Feds have only spent about 30% of that miniscule $5 Billion figure so far. So they have only spent about a Billion and a half, so far, out of a necessary amount of at least $30 Billion. A drop in the bucket. Now, let the lame-brain Pollyannas come out of the woodworks and pronounce this more 'good news'. This is proof positive that we are so deeply enscrewed that there is absolutely no chance at all, period, finito, end of story, for any hope, no matter how far fetched for a successful remediation. It was only a matter of time before news like this came out. But, the news that will keep on coming out will make this seem good. It is going to continually get progressively worse; exactly like it has from the beginning. You want even more bad news? " Gartner says there are 50 million embedded devices with year 2000 problems, and only 5% of all companies have begun researching these problems." Look. Nobody wants to see people suffer the consequences of the Y2K fallout. It is going to happen whether you like it or not. Nobody wants to see people go hungry or die of disease or to kill other people for food. But the bottom line is that if most estimates were made early on, and on the basis of about $1 per LOC and the REAL cost approaches $6 per LOC then even the most naive must realize that the jig is up. It is over. Finito. It can not be accomplished at that cost in time. And so the refrain..... The inevitable is crystal clear. Remediation is futile. The collapse is going to happen. It is going to be catstrophic. Only the wise will prepare. Only the wise will get out of populated areas while they still have a chance. It is no longer a matter of trying to accomplish remediation for the benefit of all. It can not be done. It does not matter what anyone's hopes or aspirations or good wishes are. It can not be done. If you remain in a populated area where people will be left without food and water and electricity, they will turn upon one another and tear each other to shreds. It is too bad if you do not like hearing this. Fools will ignore it, The wise will get out of Dodge. All the false nobility aside, anyone who does not get out before the panics begin stand very little chance of making it. It will not be a slow onset. When it comes, it will be like falling off a cliff. There will be no second chances. The Federal government will not feed you. The State will not feed you. The County will not feed you. Your Town will not feed you. No one anywhere is making contingency plans of that nature, sufficient to feed enough of the population to prevent wholesale mayhem. I can pretty much guarantee you one thing right now. Two weeks from now, this news will already have been forgotten. It will be conveniently surpressed in the minds of the Pollyannas. Get out now, and leave the boneheads behind. Let them take their chances in the populated areas like the fools that they are. Let them gamble the lives of their children on demonstrably false hopes and Prima Facie evidence that not enough can be done in time. They are fodder for the Spikey Hairs. Paul Milne techweb.com

To: John Mansfield who wrote (1902)	5/24/1998 11:53:00 AM
From: John Mansfield	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9818

'Now they have to look at prioritising to get just the essential applications done. '... But Mr Cliff Murphy, manager of Digital's European Year 2000 Competency Centre in Dublin, emphasises that this is not the case. "It is actually a quite serious crisis. The experts are now saying it's too late for companies to do anything in time for 2000," he says. "Now they have to look at prioritising to get just the essential applications done. We're now talking about a damage limitation exercise." Analysts estimate that companies which are just beginning to work on the problem will only be able to get to 60 per cent of systems and software ready before January 1st, 2000. ... irish-times.com