Valuation estimate FWIW from vectorvest
Stock Analysis of Smart Modular
Thank you for requesting an analysis of Smart Modular from VectorVest ProGraphics. The ticker symbol for Smart Modular is SMOD. SMOD is traded on the NASDAQ and options are available on this stock.
PRICE: SMOD closed on 19-May-1998 at $22.10 per share.
VALUE: SMOD has a Value of $48.60 per share. Value is the foundation of the VectorVest system.It is a measure of what a stock is currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth rate, and financial performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an important role in the
computation of Value. When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and inflation increase, Value goes down. Sooner or later a stock's Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): SMOD has an RV of 1.66. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RV of 1.66 is excellent. RV reflects the long-term price appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative investment in AAA Corporate Bonds. Stocks with RV ratings
above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater than 1.00 when its Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted earnings growth rate are above average. In some cases, however, a stock's RV will be above 1.00
even though its Value is well below Price. This happens when a stock has an exemplary record of financial performance and an above average earnings growth rate. In this case, the stock is currently selling at a premium, and the investor is banking on future earnings growth
to drive the stock's price higher. This information is very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price appreciation potential, but it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently achieve above average capital gains in the stock market.
RS (Relative Safety): SMOD has an RS rating of 1.01. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RS of 1.01 is fair. VectorVest looks at safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying stock of a company) rather than that of a purchaser of debt (one who is
lending money to the company). From this perspective, consistency of financial and operating performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are the key factors used in
the evaluation of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio, capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other factors are also considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average of all stocks. A stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less predictable and riskier than the average
stock.
RT (Relative Timing): SMOD has an RT rating of 0.90. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 0.90 is fair. RT is a fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It analyzes the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price behavior over the last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price performance of the stock. Once a stock's Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the short-term. If the trend
dissipates, RT will gravitate towards 1.00. Should the price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning point. When warranted, it will explode from a Price low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00,the stock's Price is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the stock's Price is in a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): SMOD has a VST-Vector rating of 1.21. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 1.21 is very good. VST-Vector solves the dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks with high RV values often have low RS values, or stocks withlow RV and RS values have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with the best combinations of Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares) handles this problem. It combines a set of forces into a single indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above average capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): SMOD has a GRT of 33 % per year. This is excellent. GRT stands for forecasted Earnings Growth Rate in percent per year. GRT is updated each week for every stock. Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the GRT trend is up, the stock's Price
will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will increase more slowly, cease to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): SMOD has a Hold recommendation. REC reflects the
cumulative effect of all the VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is approximately 10% above a recent low, and an "S" signal when the stock's price is approximately 10% below a recent high. High RV, RS stocks are favored toward receiving "B" REC's, and sheltered
from receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: SMOD has a Stop-Price of$ 21.30 per share. This is $0.80 or3.6% belowits current closing Price. VectorVest analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock. These Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week moving averages of closing prices, and are fine-tuned according to each stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if its price is above its Stop-Price, and an "S" recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): SMOD does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on annual, regular, cash dividends indicated by the most recent disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., generally are not included in Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): SMOD has a DY of 0.0 percent. This is below the current market average of 1.2 percent. DY equals 100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): SMOD has an EY of 6.70%. This is above the current market average of 4.83%. EY equals 100 x (EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): SMOD has an EPS of $1.48 per share. EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per Share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): SMOD has a P/E ratio of 14.92. This ratio is computed daily based upon Price and EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): SMOD has a GPE of 2.21. This ratio suggests that This ratio suggests that SMOD is undervalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure of stock valuation which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT) to Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00, and vice-versa.
VectorVest believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term value. The RV of 1.66 for SMOD is excellent.
DS (Dividend Safety): SMOD has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a DS of 0 is poor.
DS is defined as the assurance that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at
current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. Stocks with DS values above 50 on a
scale of 0 to 99 areabove average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): SMOD does not pay a dividend. All stocks in the VectorVest
system that pay dividends are classified as having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk
(RISK). Stocks with DS values above 50 are above average in safety. These stocks are
classified as having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS values below 50 are below
average in safety and are classified as having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): SMOD has a DG of 0 percent per year. Dividend Growth is a
subtle yet important indicator of a company's historical financial performance and the board's
current outlook on the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): SMOD has a YSG-Vector of
0.00. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an YSG-Vector rating of 0.00 is very poor. VectorVest
combines Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single parameter. YSG-Vector
allows direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with the highest YSG-Vector
values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the
stocks to buy for above average current income and long-term growth.
VOL(100)s: SMOD traded 398900 shares on 19-May-1998.
AVG VOL(100)s: SMOD has an Average Volume of 690786. Average Volume is 50
day moving average of daily volume as computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: SMOD had a Volume change of -42.3% from its 50 day moving average volume.
OPEN: SMOD opened trading at $23.00 per share on 19-May-1998.
HIGH: SMOD traded at a high of $23.10 per share on 19-May-1998.
LOW: SMOD traded at a low of $22.00 per share on 19-May-1998.
CLOSE: SMOD Closed trading at $22.10 per share on 19-May-1998.
% PRC: SMOD showed a Price change of -4.3% from the prior day's closing price.
INDUSTRY: SMOD has been assigned to the Computer (Memory Devices) Group.
VectorVest classifies stocks into over 190 Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.
SMOD has about average safety with well above average upside potential. It reflects a stock
which is likely to give well above average,relatively consistent returns over the long term. |
