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Technology Stocks : Netscape -- Giant Killer or Flash in the Pan? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Arena who wrote (3235)	5/26/1998 2:47:00 PM
From: Ted Shelton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4903

Interestingly the entire search engine space is down today - and has been trending down, so NSCP trending down is not necessarily related to earnings report - just industry segment adjustment. I still see NSCP as being low for the segment. Look at it this way -- YHOO has a market cap (at this minute) of about $5.092 B and has a "unique web audience" of about 32 million Americans (Relevant Knowledge). Contrast that against NSCP's 22 million audience (forget the browser and server business for a minute) and at a YHOO valuation per user, NSCP should have a market cap of $3.341 B as opposed to its current $2.333 B. Yes YHOO should have a premium as market leader -- but how much of a premium? And then what about the server software business -- clearly this is still of value (witness the CITIBANK announcement) even if only on a breakup basis. So what have I picked as a target (being the very not professional that I am :-) ) I thought 30-32 seemed solid and appropriately accounted for both the server business and the portal business. I think the stock has been run down over the last week or so by overly pessimistic outsiders who don't know what to expect today -- and by outsiders I just mean non-technology industry folks. I expect a great spin today and an acceptable earnings report. Now is a great time to buy as I expect a healthy increase in the next week. Of course, I am long so I want to believe :-)