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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (3910)	5/27/1998 11:34:00 AM
From: Worswick	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9980

Check out Barton at: asiachart.com Also, the SCMP today on Moody's downgrade of the Japanese banks Muchas dias que mejor,

To: Sam who wrote (3910)	5/27/1998 12:38:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Respond to of 9980

Sam, If you go back and review my post #3584 (May 13th), it details quite a bit about current debt problems in Japan. Here's what I wrote about the Postal system: >>Turns out Zaito is a monster. Spending out of this fund is two-thirds of government spending that goes unreported in the main numbers. Funding comes from private individual Japanese citizens, public pension funds and investments in the state-owned Postal Savings System (must be like S.S. to the US). Well this monster fund has loans outstanding to the tune of $2.8 trillion! So if you add this debt, to what is officially reported ($4.5 trillion), then you have a whooping $7.3 trillion debt. But that's not all. The article claims more is buried in the numbers. So the real estimate for Japan's national debt is, $11 trillion or 250% of GDP! Ouch.<< Now keep in mind, this is MY interpretation of the Business Week article which is the author's interpretation of the debt problem. Lot's of opinions and my analysis of the article could easily be wrong. It was an interesting piece and well worth reading. It was the cover story for Business Week. I think they had a giant Yen symbol on the cover. As far as your question about how many bad loans there are, I think we just have to wait and see. Seems like every banking crisis tends to uncover more and more problems as time goes on. It appears, recently, Robert Rubin may be concerned about the problems(IMHO). Don't forget, the "Big Bang" was a voluntary program that they decided to implement themselves. That's why the recent problem loans are coming to the forefront in the first place. This is a big step in the right direction (IMHO). Hope this helps, MikeM(From Florida)