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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: patroller who wrote (1547)	5/27/1998 2:42:00 PM
From: Asymmetric	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2542

Market Now Down -160 points, Nasdaq -35. Patroller, I'm not really an economist or any kind of expert on the financial sector, and how various items are interlinked...nor do I have that kind of time, so all I'm going to say is that you have to be aware of the law of unintended consequences, where cause and effect are never clearly apparent, and chaos theory... the classic example there of a butterfly fluttering it's wings in South America causing changes in weather patterns in New York City. It's not much of an answer, so at the risk of sounding foolish, I'll go on a bit more. My take is that Japan and China (mainland) are the lynchpins regarding stemming the Asian economic crisis. With the situation among the SE Tigers continuing to deteriorate, it is of even greater importance that Japan/China resist being dragged down. The whole region is on the knifeblade of a full blown depression, and if Japan stumbles further, especially it's banking sector, the pressure on China will be more than it is capable of dealing with, which would lead it to devalue it's currency, triggering a subsequent secondary chain reaction of currency devaluation, and a further falloff in Asian demand for goods & services, and deepens both the extent and length of time needed for the entire region to export/produce their way out of economic recession. The reason I follow the commodities markets, which I alluded to in a long ago post, and link them to the stock market/ECM, is that if demand for RAW goods dramatically falls, which is reflected in the continued drop in price in everything from oil, to copper, to wheat, etc, - which reflect the needs and economic demands of the world economy on its most basic level, I have to believe that demand for FINISHED goods, will eventually/is falling in likewise fashion. Since ECM companies produce finished manufacturing technology goods, it is only logical that they too would see a general falloff in demand. Hope this helps, and is somewhat coherent and logical. Good luck to all. Peter.