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To: SecularBull who wrote (44994)5/27/1998 4:06:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
RE: You are TOO negative. Why?

I don't think I am negative.
I don't think the stock of a box maker, regardless of how well they are doing fundamentaly, diserves to trade at DELL's multiples.
It is industry noted for destroying companies over night. That should restrain the multiples.
But we are in a manical market, and investors are just willing to buy relentlessly with out regard to historical lessons learned.

Governments study history in an effort to avoid major and costly conflict.
I study history to avoid making catastrophic trading errors.

On CNBC, a guy came on talking about discount trading and what is the best stratagy.
His answer was never sell.

That is not a bad idea, but in 1928, and 1966, it was not a good stratagy. Since 1974 it has been great. The problem is that you will want to sell most in 1974 when the market is at its worst levels. This is human nature.
When you study historical markets, you are studying human nature.

We humans are generaly easy to deal with, but sometimes, we can turn on a dime and then you don't want to deal with us.

BTW, I covered 1/2 my Position today.

Jim

Today, the market most resembles the markets of the late 20's.