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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (19721)	5/28/1998 5:47:00 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 70976

Kid: Earnings announcements would be of no big surprise to me at least. I can't speak for the market. In effect, however, AMAT has already preannounced with its guidance during the cc putting earnings at .20 - .23 for the upcoming quarter. Their guidance is usually pretty good to say the least. You got close to a 20% correction in the stock up to this point as a result. Now they have come out with a restructuring charge and the price of the stock hardly moved yesterday. I see a support level for nibbling; you see a support level for covering. We both see the same thing but from different perspectives. I remember during the November 1996 cc Morgan said the following: "Looking forward, we believe the industry downturn could extend through the early part of CY 1997 with the last half of 1997 still uncertain." Well from that gloomy forecast stock climbed from $16 post split to $35.5 by the end of June, 1997. An interesting thing to keep in mind currently. BTW, I did not view the last cc as in any way positive short term whatsoever and neither did investors by looking at the tape. I don't know what spin you are talking about there. Long term the company is upbeat and it has every reason to be upbeat given its past performance in down cycles. I would keep in mind the relief rally in early April after all the sellers had gone in a window dressing move to get out by the end of March. There were no sellers left in early April and the stocks had a nice rally.

To: jtechkid who wrote (19721)	5/29/1998 11:36:00 PM
From: Mr. Pink	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

jtechkid, you seem to be prescient long-term but not so prescient short-term. Short-term stuff is just random walk. Don't fool yourself into thinking you can consistently make viable short-term predictions of market moves which are based on the interaction of countless variables with the investing whims of millions of unpredictable, emotionally labile investors. Its like going outside during a storm and trying to predict which way the leaves will blow exactly 15 seconds from now. It just can't be done, not even with a supercomputer, even if you could program in all the variables. To extend the analogy, maybe one can predict El Nino's next appearance or an impending long-term market downturn with some degree of certainty: these are both large scale systems with somewhat definable boundary values. On the other hand, weather patterns on the scale of a few cubic feet, or tomorrow's market moves are just totally unpredictable. My criticism notwithstanding, its clear that you are one smart guy. Thanks for your posts, I appreciate them.