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To: Lucretius who wrote (472)	5/28/1998 5:25:00 PM
From: SJS	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 14427

LT: Have FUN!! ______________________- MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC. (MU) 23 11/16 -1 1/16. When it comes to making investors money, there are very few analysts on Wall Street who are able to do it on a consistent basis. That group of winners is further reduced by analysts who make their clients money on luck or momentum instead of research and knowledge. When it comes to making a prediction on a stock or industry trend, in our opinion Merrill Lynch's Thomas Kurlak is the best in the business. Back in January, when he issued a $20 downside priced target on Micron, few could believe it. Everyone on the Street was upgrading the stock, and here came Kurlack shouting that MU shares are overvalued. Those familiar with Micron's price move following the Kurlak comments will argue that Kurlak was wrong, because, after all, the stock quickly made a move to almost $40 a share, fully 27% above the price traded at the time of the call. We would respond by saying that predicting short-term movements in stocks (particularly stocks as momentum-driven as Micron was) is not an analysts job. At minimum, six months should be their time horizon, not four or five weeks. Why exactly did Mr. Kurlak believe MU to be overvalued: DRAM pricing? In the analyst's opinion, DRAM prices were likely to remain too low to drive a recovery in MU's earnings, noting that the South Koreans continue to flood the market with chips. This statement was in sharp contrast to the opinions of highly-regard Goldman Sachs strategist Abbey Josheph Cohen, who argued only days before that South Korean DRAM makers had cut back production of DRAMs, thus reducing supply and reversing the downward spiral in prices. With much less fanfare than its positive comments, Goldman Sacks is today admitting that Kurlak was indeed on the money. But, while widening its 1998 estimate from a loss of $0.55 to a loss of $0.95 and slashing its 1999 earnings estimate from $1.50 share to $0.85 a share, Goldman Sachs refuses to remove MU from its recommended list." In the 4 1/2 months since Mr. Kurlak made his initial call on MU, the stock has fallen 25%. Although some analysts play the momentum game and sometimes help their clients achieve fat returns over shorter periods, with Mr. Kurlak's picks one can make excellent money and at the same time go to bed with significantly less concern about the stock blowing-up in their portfolio.