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Microcap & Penny Stocks : 1ST MIRACLE GROUP (MVEE), founders last co. went $0.20-$46 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Capitalism who wrote (117)	5/28/1998 10:17:00 PM
From: Ann Rand	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5541

It's a little too early for Graham & Dodd to be looking at this stock. The gist is it represents the come-back trail for two guys who have done it before. Anybody who knows them or knows their past accomplishments believe firmly they can do it again. They know the business & everyone loves a comeback in this country. This stock is similar to a stock in the late 70's, early 80's that also could not stand up to classic Graham & Dodd analysis. It was called National Lampoon. All it did for years was publish a money-losing magazine by the same name. BUT P.J. O'Rourke & other very talented writers at that mag made a deal with John Belushi to produce Animal House, with the promise of a string of additional productions starring the UNKNOWN talent from Saturday Night Live: Dan Akroyd, Jane Curtin, Chevy Chase, etc. Anyone who knew their potential as entertainers, knew National Lampoon became a growth stock with the inking of this deal. The stock went from $2, where it had been for years, to $12. Then Barron's took it apart from an earnings point of view. It was certainly their right. Trailing earnings were non-existent, and projections depended wholly on the box office potential of the movies, which were yet to generated. In other words, you couldn't make revenue projections, let alone bottom line net. Needless to say, Barron's article knocked the stock in half by noon on Monday, but closed the day at $10. Because there were those who believed VERY strongly in the eventual commercial success of up-coming releases. I think the article stated that for National Lampoon to earn around 30 cents per share, the movie would have to do $100 million at the box office. It far exceeded that number. The movie was a smash. Not for Graham & Dodd though. They would never have enjoyed the movie. The same holds true for Golan & Globus. The movie business (pure play, no less), does not lend itself to value investing. Movie companies dont make widgets, with concrete COG, fixed gross margins, SG&A, predictable EBITDA, and hence a clearly quantifiable net. Golan & Globus' business model applies more disciplined business principles, (learn from your mistakes), to movie making which will generate quality earnings, but in the meantime, you gotta believe brother. If you dont, or if these realities knock you off your investment discipline kilter, dont buy it. Don't buy it for the short term and dont buy it for the long term. The talent in this company is not on the set, it's in it's officers offices. The earnings will come. But not enough to suit Barron's. National Lampoon became 21st Century Communications. It's stock went into the mid 20's & became a then young generation's investment darling.

To: Capitalism who wrote (117)	5/29/1998 12:14:00 PM
From: Stephen Goldfarb	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5541

That sounds like a useful concept for estimating share price. I am a shareholder because I believe that Golem and Globus know how to make commercially successful films. In a vague way, I entertain the view that this will translate into higher, even substantially higher, share price. Looking for a semi-logical basis between commercial success and ultimate share price is, of course, the dilemma. The discussion on this topic is helpful. Eventual hard data will tell the tale. Steve