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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (17845)	5/29/1998 1:58:00 AM
From: Roadkill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25960

>>Are you basing this on stiffness in the joints or do you have TA or FA to back up your comments?<< Mostly stiffness, actually. Fundamentally, there is no reason CYMI should have fallen into the teens, much less to sub-16. My opinion is based solely on TA, both with regard to the general market (which will pull down all stocks if it tanks), and with regard to CYMI in particular. I believe that the general market has not completed its correction for the following reasons: (1) The asian crisis has not been resolved; rather than stabilizing, it just keeps growing. The final damage is uncertain, and the market hates uncertainty; (2) Numerous foriegn markets are in downtrends, while the US market has gleefully looked the other way. History tells us that this does not last for long; (3) (an extension of #1) The current 5-8% decline seems incredibly inconsequential, particularly in light of the India/Pakistan mess, and the fallout from the US imposing sanctions on those countries. In effect, exports to India, Pakistan and Indonesia (political crisis) will stop, while Japan is still a disaster and will remain so for God knows how long; and (4) The current general market rebound came on lower volume Thursday; unless we see a follow-through from Wednesday's late day up-move in the next week or ten days, TA says that the down-trend will resume, likely breaking the lows of this week. With regard to CYMI, the bounce Thursday came through uninspired trading, on somewhat low volume vs. the average daily volume, and stopped dead around 17 1/2. For comparison, take a look at the bounce in PMCS, or TDFX. Until we see some serious volume, I don't think we're going to move much higher than that. At the very least, I'd like to see some capitulation. Extremely low volume generally signals this, and I expect this signal will flash in the 15s, or even near the Winter lows of about 14 1/2. I'd be surprised if we broke those lows due to the exceptionally strong support there, unless the market totally melts down. Then all bets are off. I think CYMI will retest the 15s sooner rather than later, maybe sometime in June. The old adage that the stock market looks six months ahead means that we can't stay in the teens too long, unless the world's demand for smaller, faster chips suddenly stops. I gather from your post that you think we've seen the lows already. If that's correct, what do you base that on? I'm always willing to be persuaded by a strong argument. All just MHO, of course. RK