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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: REH who wrote (4356)	5/29/1998 1:18:00 PM
From: Todd N	Respond to of 93625

I think the $19 million revenue figure you used were for six months. >>Revenues for the first six months of fiscal 1998 were $19.0 million<< It looks like the analysts are totally ignoring the deferred revenue amount as they are predicting .07/share net, the same as last qtr. That deferred revenue announced should change the bottom line drastically, but the analysts appear they are not taking that into account. It will be interesting to see that management will say this qtr. as it was about six months ago they said that revenues would be flat for the following two quarters, ending in June. Hopefully mgmt will give guidance of an improving condition instead of a steady one. I'm getting tired of averaging down. Todd

To: REH who wrote (4356)	5/29/1998 1:26:00 PM
From: MileHigh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

REH, you said below revenues for 2nd qtr were $19M, I believe you meant to say $9.7M, which makes RMBS OI margin closer to 22%, which if you added in $5M to $9.7M, you get 3rd qtr revenue of approx.$14.7M and at 22% OI Margin, you get $3.2M OI, far above $2.2M 2nd qtr OI number.... I am using your assumption of the $5M deferred revenue being allocated evenly over 5 qtrs. Also, keep in mind RMBS stated at H&Q conference recently that they expect OI margins to double to 40% or so in the future, How soon? When? I do not know, but one does not say this unless they are relatively sure margins will increase (you know the game) My correction is top line and if I got anything wrong, please comment. But I like my 3rd qtr OI estimate of $3.2M -vs- your estimate of $2.8M !! <vbg> Operating income for the second quarter was $2.2 million They also have announced that they will use $ 25M of deferred revenue over the next 5 quarters. If they split this evenly that means $ 5M current quarter. Lets assume sales and revenue stay the same as second quarter: Revenue: $ 19M Operating Income: $ 2.2M (11.6%) Add in deferred revenue of $ 5M, 11.6% would represent 0.6M Total Operating Income: $ 2.8M which would deifinatly blow away consensus estimates. In addition we might see a positive upside from more Nitendo sales...... Real numbers will count and I think rmbs will deliver MileHigh

To: REH who wrote (4356)	5/29/1998 5:35:00 PM
From: Thomas P. Friend	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

>> Add in deferred revenue of $ 5M, 11.6% would represent 0.6M Total Operating Income: $ 2.8M which would deifinatly blow away consensus estimates. In addition we might see a positive upside from more Nitendo sales......<< REH, Besides the other errors in your math that have already been pointed out, what makes you think that the deferred revenue is ADDITIVE? It just gets moved from one place on the balance sheet to another. Total quarterly revenues = new income + allocated deferred revenue. Do you think that FINANCIAL ANALYSTS and investors spending millions of dollars can't do the math? Maybe revenues will come in better than expected, but don't expect a $5 million miracle that nobody but the people on this thread know about. You don't even take the time to check your math and spelling for errors. How are we to take your analysis and research seriously? Sorry for the zings, but come on. There may be people actually making investment decisions based on what you are saying here. Somewhat apologetically, Tom