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Technology Stocks : Etec Systems moving up -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (952)	5/29/1998 10:00:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1279

Bob, we've both been around this stock for a long time - me since just after the IPO. I'd be very careful if I were you. I do not possess the tech qualifications to know if the latter two points in my last post have any validity to the stock price (potential competition and relaxing specs meaning the end of the road for the capabilities of their technology). However, I recall that one analyst on the CC pointed to competition as a factor in the price decline. Also, their fiscal years are not calendar years and fiscal year 1999 (first half) is the first time that pushouts are expected to give uninspiring results. Because pushouts are responsible, I think that is a done deal. Ever since the IPO the issue was a backlog they couldn't keep up with and occasional delays. (But remember my many posts expressing concern that because the backlog $ were staying the same over time, price increases meant that the number of units in the backlog were dropping.) The current warning is an entirely different situation and as one poster noted the firmness of orders for the second half of Fiscal 1999 also did not leave him with a warm and fuzzy feeling. Also note that new facilities are coming on stream, which will raise their breakeven point. Fiscal 2000 starting August 1, 1999 may be great, but that is a long way away. With weakness forecast for the second and third quarter ahead, why do you think you will have anything better than a wide trading range for quite some time. I see an outside trading range of 25-50, and a narrower one of 30-45. In this market I would also think a stock with strong downside momentum like ETEC is likely to break the 12 month's low at 34. I am interested in buying the stock and would love someone to make a compelling case to buy it now. I just don't see one.