To: bill c. who wrote (11107 ) 5/31/1998 4:05:00 PM From: Zephod Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 21342
Bill: Judging by the ho-hum market reaction to the Orckit GTE announcement, I'm guessing we won't see any fireworks, but at least it'll stop the downdraft. I'm in 100% agreement with Dr. Tech as far as these gutless analysts are concerned. I remember these same analysts pushing this stock in the 20's, long after the JPC news, where are they now? Did you catch Nikos question in the cc, "what percentage of your earnings were international," I got the impression he wasn't even listening to the Bell Atlantic, Lucent, DSC etc. deployment info. Here's a direct quote from KS at Soundview from the cc "I was talking to one of the guys in the high speed access area over at Gartner Group and they expect the two most aggressive DSL deployers in the US to be US West and Bell Atlantic , and we all know who US West is working with......They've been exclusive with you, it's been RADSL ..." All these analysts know ADSL deployments and Bell Atlantic in particular will be big, but they got burned when they inappropriately recommended Westell when it was in the 20's and now they're afraid to stick their necks out again. I guess they're waiting for the ramp, if so, why the previous upgrades? The DR. is 100% right, it's time these overpaid analysts started to make recommendations before the stock price appreciates, not after. MZ's cc response "First you mentioned Bell Atlantic and US West I hope that it's absolutely true that they both turn out to be very aggressive, one thing you should keep in mind you say we all know who US West is working with, you also recall from the articles ...they need solutions for the DLC, so what kind of DLC do they have, and what DSL solutions are available, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out they have some DSC, some SLC products, so certainly that would be a target market for those type of solutions ....On Bell Atlantic we're seeing that they have a firm forecast, they've been pretty confidant in it however there is a high probability of a large deviation because when you open this up and make it available, just to see how customers accept it is an unknown for them, so I think there's some increasing confidence that it could be different that they're forecast shows and that could be a positive type of situation " One other point. I think this campus, apartment deployment business could really be big. Sounds like a good place for VDSL as well, copper in good shape, short runs etc. Remember what Danny Briere said at Interop "There's significant deployment occurring behind the scenes in buildings and on campuses. ". MZ cc "We are also looking at expanding opportunities in the rate adaptive DSL CLEC business marketplace as well. This is a very interesting market, 77,000 buildings in the US hold 70% of the data market in this country . We are currently engaged in a number of campus type DSL deployments and are working with several ISP's for building type deployments in several large cities Hopefully we'll start working up from here in anticipation of the Bell announcement. (I thought SuperCom was 2nd week of June?) Dave