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Strategies & Market Trends : A.I.M Users Group Bulletin Board -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: steve in socal who wrote (4803)	6/1/1998 1:37:00 AM
From: Bruce A. Bowman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Steve- Glad to see you're still around the homestead. With one of us on each end of the state maybe we can keep it in balance! :-) When you get the new venture going, will you be able to hang around home a little more? or are you going to still pile up frequent flyer miles? BOST is one of those "whew!" investments: I didn't buy it... whew! Amazing how misleading earnings data can be when it gets published only once per qtr. and the current news is ugly. 6 months ago things were going to be better any minute now. Today relief is spelled out in Chapter 11. Sounds like a new symbol coming for BOST. Let's see... is that BOSTD or BOSTE? "MacDonald's of the Nineties"? Not likely. Got the notice about the pending suits. It said somewhere in there that I didn't have to do anything now so that was enough for me to put it in the "too hard to do" pile! :-) I keep bond data on my quote screen and I thought it had bottomed this past week, but without a chart to look at I can't be sure. At the very least the equities markets have to go back and test the recent lows. If the Nasdaq doesn't hold up at 1740, the next support is at 1640, then down to 1600. After that, we might as well turn out the lights and go home for a while... it could go to 1400 or (gulp!) lower. And the S&P 500 on a weekly chart looks very extended too (though it looks so-so on a daily). There's several ways these indices can get back to their averages and the extremes are either a one day trip straight down or they can go sideways for a month or 2 or 3 or...?. Your preference of which is best depends on whether you're one of those that rips off a bandage in one quick tug or someone who peels it back v-e-r-r-r-y slowly! :-) Of course, this says nothing about whether the averages are anywhere near correct values. In any case, it seems like the small caps never really took off this round. I keep waiting and it just doesn't seem to happen. Probably because they've never really shown much in the way of earnings (that's pure speculation). The Nasdaq index goes up and up, but the advance-decline line starts heading down again after an initial surge up. Seems like that could be the large caps reflected in the index and the small caps reflected in the A/D. Maybe we should be looking for divergence between A/D and Nasdaq index for an indication that something finally lit the small cap fire. I fear the "flight to safety" will just leave something else overpriced. I don't think there are very many hi-yield choices in the blue chips right now. I'll have to do a ranking on yield in Stock Investor and see what it turns up. I have a hunch it won't be too thrilling, but I'll let you know what I find. I just read the daily InterNet Week (now there's an oxymoron!) for Monday. Says IT managers aren't all that enthused about the crop of sub-$1,000 PCs ("business PCs"). Wonder what that means for Intel's new Celeron processor that they use in those machines? [Dell's announcing their entry on Monday.] Bruce

To: steve in socal who wrote (4803)	6/1/1998 9:41:00 AM
From: OldAIMGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18928

Hi Steve, Well, I'm half way through the LumberJack Blues. There will be no shortage of firewood in Port Washington this winter. There is, however, a shortage of BenGay for all the sore muscles! It was the mature trees that were hit the hardest. The newer areas of town, with small trees, had almost no damage. No injuries locally. 3:01 AM Sunday morning the city sirens went off. I got up to see what was going on, flipped on the TV only to find the cable dead. Then switched on the TV in the kitchen that has "rabbit ears" and saw that all of SE Wisconsin was under a thunder storm watch. I got Jane and my oldest daughter up (the youngest had a "sleep over" at a friend's) and then the power died. It's nice to have made plans in advance for flashlights, candles and matches. Saves lots of wounds to the chins! Having children around the house doesn't always guaranty that the batteries in flashlights will be fresh, but this time we were lucky. Our basement is cozy enough and an hour spent there passed quickly. Of course, since the city was almost completely blacked out, there was never an "All Clear" toot of the sirens. We just waited for the heavy winds to die off. Locally, winds were clocked at above 100 MPH. It was an odd wind, one that I remember reading of in books on sailing. The term might be "white squall", but I'm not sure. Anyway, it's not a ground based wind. It exists about 15 to 30 feet above ground. Two of my trees were topped by it. No damage lower down, but the top of my 45 year old fir tree and a Marshal Ash were torn off. This same type of damage is all over the area. The beautiful park along Lake Michigan near my home looks like a war zone. Because trees take a long time to grow this far north, it will be a while before it looks "right" again. We were without power for twelve hours. The good news is my chain saw was ready to go and I had recently purchased a new quart of lubricant for it. The bad news is that it's an electric!! With big hunks of trees flying around, there's lots of building, roof and car damage in the area. Most everyone with whom I talked heard the sirens and headed for cover. Some slept right through it. Nearby areas are still without power today. Some schools are closed because of either damage or lack of power. We teased each other throughout the day as we did silly things. I had my chain saw out and had connected the extension cords at 6:00 AM CST yesterday before I figured out that the darned thing wasn't going to do anything! I watched my wife load the toaster! Many neighbors have only electric cooking, so breakfast was cold cereal. The McDonalds at the north end of town was swamped with customers since they had power! Church services were held throughout town in darkened sanctuaries. Well, my ash tree is now firewood for next year, I've started work on the big fir in the front yard. My neighbor, with a gas chain saw, helped me cut and clear the top 15 feet of the tree from the street. All over town neighbors were out helping neighbors to clear trees or repair damage. City crews were out with the "chipper" early and were busy grinding up limbs all day. We listened to the sound of chain saws all day. Saukville (so named for the Sauk Indians) got hit hard and were still without power last night. I'm way behind on correspondence, Sorry! The Idiot Wave report will have to be a double this week, but in case anyone is wondering, last week, the IW managed to turn in an UNCHANGED reading. Still high risk, but the IW Oscillator was neutral, so maybe the worst of the Market Storm is over. More later! Best regards, Breezy Blowhard