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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slob who wrote (2465)	6/1/1998 11:50:00 AM
From: jelrod3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5944

FINDING THE BOTTOM... This is a revision to my post No. 2297 forecasting a bottom of around $13.75. ADPT has moved below it's average P/S ratio of 1.95, and is now at about 1.7. The 1993 low P/S ratio was 1.3. Using a conservative annualized revenue figure, it now appears that we could move down to about $9.08 per share. If a more optimistic revenue figure is used, the bottom is around $11.23. If we can get back to the long term average low P/S ratio of 1.95, the bottom should be about $13.63. Earnings for Q1 '99 are due out about July 24. My computer shows that First Call is looking for .20 for Q1 EPS. My thinking is that ADPT will miss this number (regretably) due to continued weakness in the Far East and declining revenues. So, all things considered, I think ADPT will hit $11.00 per share in the next 3 to 6 months.

To: slob who wrote (2465)	6/2/1998 6:39:00 PM
From: Mark	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5944

<OT> Is the market overvalued ? There was a very interesting article in this week's Sunday Times. (For those who don't know, the Times is a London broadsheet, that has a highly rated Sunday Edition). The article was by Garth Alexander who was writing from New York. It was headlined "Wall Street bears wait for Dow to crack". I don't know who the author is, and, as usual, there was no clear conclusion that the market is about to crash (just the usual mix of pundits saying it's about to, and no its not !). However, there were some interesting (and worrying) statistics........ 1) The NASDAQ market has 5452 companies. 2) The NASDAQ capitalisation is $2 trillion. 3) The average PER of the NASDAQ is 70. 4) Three companies (Intel, Microsoft and Cisco) account for 25% of the NASDAQ market capitalisation. 5) Ignoring these three, the remaining 5449 companies have an average PER of 90. 6) The average earnings of the NASDAQ companies grew by 15% in the 3 years from Jan 1995 to Mar 1998. The NASDAQ itself grew by 169% in the same period. Scary. Mark