Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : XOMA. Bull or Bear? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Edward Paule who wrote (6398)	6/1/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: aknahow	Respond to of 17367

Interesting idea. This is not in response to your post but rather more thoughts on DuPont. The "merger" of Monsanto and American Home Products probably makes Monsanto a non target for duPont, if it ever was one. While I posted MTC might merge or buy another company I was not able to come up with any thoughts on who. Now American is also a non target. Is Lilly a target for duPont? A must read is Jim Cramers article on Lilly at thestreet.com Cramer does not say or hint that Lilly is a target. His article discussed his recent experience trading it and how the long term holders might have been selling for other reasons along with those who saw the buy-back of shares as bearish. With MTC probably no longer desirable, duPont not only must be looking elsewhere but all the worker drones and principals engaged in looking for acquisitions in the drug and biotech area are going to be stimulated to act faster. While I originally thought things would take longer than expected, I was wrong and things are moving faster. BTW I do not think there is no chance duPont will take over MTC just less chance. Biotechs and drugs are a great area to be in. IMO we may see one or two major announcements per month for the rest of 98, for either a merger or drug development. Also not that duPont cares but I think the financial history books will view its move out of Conoco as a major blunder.

To: Edward Paule who wrote (6398)	6/2/1998 10:28:00 AM
From: aknahow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 17367

Ed, I don't agree with some of your post. It is my understanding that the DSMB is really concerned with safety. Yes, I understand it can also recommend stopping when there is overwhelming efficiency. With just 100 receiving Neuprex it becomes statistically difficult to prove overwhelming efficiency. Remember that even if the overweight patient, in the open trials were excluded, and there were 25 out of 25 cured their would not be statistical reliability or a high enough level of confidence, due to the small sample. Therefore the DSMB will not stop a trial because it wants to help get a companies drug to market before a new seasonal outbreak, nor because it somehow decides, the FDA now will have enough data. From the start we have been told that 200 was the minimum number of patients that the FDA would accept. XOMA for financial reasons wanted to limit the trial to two years. The FDA agreed and helped out with granting subpart E status. Once it became clear the 200 would be accrued before the end of two years XOMA knowing that the FDA would have preferred more than 200 and that the number in the trial is important to demonstrating statistical significance opted to keep the trial going beyond the 200 number. Bottom line, is that no matter how much I would love to see the trial stopped and early approval achieved I don't believe this is a reasonable expectation and I am convinced the best management decision is to continue as planned for the two years and obtain the maximum number of patients.