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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (9468)	6/1/1998 1:02:00 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 18691

<< Well, If Dell doubles from here in a year, they'd have a market cap of over 100B >> Won't it be amazing? << That's kinda hard to believe (Intel now is @ 105B), even for me >> I see INTC at 116B but who's counting. Anyway I don't see how that's so far fetched considering INTC has already had earnings declines for several quarters and they are expected to continue for a while. (Forecasts are for a 17% decline next Q) Kurlack forecasts INTC to have 2 consecutive yearly declines in earnings. (1997==>1998==>1999) Contrast this to DELL, who has grown their earnings 55% over the last 5 years and is forecast to grow them at 40% for a while Does $100 billion seem all that far off? Last Q EPS gains or (loss) vs. the prior year M$FT...25% INTC...(34%) C$CO...30% DELL...63%

To: Lazlo Pierce who wrote (9468)	6/1/1998 1:07:00 PM
From: larry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

David, I am glad that I did not follow lots of hedge fund managers' steps to short DELL, one of my biggest mistakes in the past was not being bullish enough on DELL. DELL has enough room to grow, especially considering that their market share is a mere 7%. Throw in the very top management team and the best business model, I do see that DELL doubling within 12 months. It will need a true bear market to tank DELL, which I highly doubt will be the case. The amazing thing about DELL is that if might retreat to high 60s or low 70s in the near term. BUT when it starts to fly, it can go back to 100 within 3 weeks. good luck, larry!