LA JOLLA, Calif., May 29 (North County Times/KRTBN)---Speakers at a
telecommunications conference here Wednesday said the monopolies of
Microsoft and the Baby Bells are being destroyed by the rise of wireless
data and other new technologies; they said San Diego can only benefit.
In effusive remarks about San Diego's largest private employer, Qualcomm
Inc., George Gilder, a prominent technology observer and social critic,
depicted a new century dominated by wireless technology from Qualcomm
Inc. of San Diego.
Vast new fiber-optic and satellite networks will spawn whole new
categories of computers and digital devices, Gilder said at the
conference, held at the Sheraton Grande Torrey Pines.
Gilder has been ridiculed for much of the decade for predicting that
Qualcomm would come to dominate wireless telecommunications. But
Qualcomm's triumphs with its Code Division Multiple Access technology
have quieted the doubters, he said.
"Qualcomm's CDMA has better voice quality than a lot of wireline
services. That kind of improvement all around the world is going to make
wireless the dominant mode of telecommunications and it's going to make
people in San Diego even richer than they are today," Gilder said during
a luncheon.
New wireless, fiber-optic and cable modem networks will cost customers
far less than the high-speed services offered by the Baby Bells, Gilder
said. But the Bells have so much invested in their old networks they
fear to cannibalize their lucrative revenues, he added -- but
competitors will have no qualms. The move toward cheap, higher-speed
data "bandwidth" hurts Microsoft as well as the Bell monopolies, Gilder
said.
That's because the computing model depends on sending information
through networks based on Internet standards, not Microsoft standards.
Qualcomm's technology will also win, Gilder said, because it is reliable
and transmits data more efficiently than competing wireless systems.
Qualcomm has signed a dizzying number of deals to spread CDMA around the
planet, in land-based cellular and PCS mobile phones, and Globalstar, a
satellite-based phone system scheduled to be operating next year.
Qualcomm showed a prototype Globalstar phone at the conference.
The two-antenna phone will work on either the Globalstar or a land-based
network, said Katharine A. Kubichan, a Qualcomm marketing coordinator.
Last month, Gilder said, European regulators "surrendered" to CDMA by
deciding to adopt that technology for the next generation of wireless
devices instead of the homegrown European standard called GSM. The
regulators have not decided whether to license the technology from
Qualcomm, or use another version of CDMA that supposedly would not
infringe on Qualcomm's patents.
Gilder said the new century will bring forth ultra-small computers,
which will hook up to displays and devices to deliver voice and mail
messages and perform other tasks, Gilder said. "The most common personal
computer of the next era will be a digital cellular phone. It will be as
mobile as your watch and personal as your wallet. It will run CDMA, but
it may not run Windows."
In that vein, Gilder said he was impressed with WaveWare, a Sorrento
Valley company that is testing software that links corporate networks
with the Palm Pilot handheld computer. WaveWare's technology works with
either wireless or wireline connections.
Outside of San Diego, Gilder said, companies playing a leading role
include Qwest, a builder of fiber-optic networks, and Rhythms
NetConnections, a provider of high-speed Internet services. Other
speakers made more conservative predictions than Gilder, but agreed that
San Diego companies will play a major role in the new era of fast
wireless and wireline data transmission. Despite San Diego's wireless
innovations, William Stensrud, a local venture capitalist, said Silicon
Valley is likely to maintain its technological lead.
"I don't think we'll overtake Silicon Valley, but we can become a very
strong second," said Stensrud, a partner in the firm, Enterprise
Partners. Enterprise's investments include IPivot, Inc., a Poway-based
Internet service company.
IPivot makes software to reduce bottlenecks in sending information
through Internet-style networks, said Brett Helm, president and chief
executive. Helm said the San Diego area has an ample supply of technical
employees, and they are less likely to job-hop than the notoriously
fickle Silicon Valley work force.
By Bradley J. Fikes |
