Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : SOUTHERNERA (t.SUF) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RBMac who wrote (1350)	6/2/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: Confluence	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 7235

Analysts put the value of SUF at $8.50 to $10.00, based on cash flow or NPV, WITHOUT M1 or the rest of the Marsfontein property. Check with HSBC James Capel and comments from their recent diamond conference. I called CJ in RSA today, and heard of other calls after mine: no news yet; the Minister of Minerals and Energy was to have meetings with Mr. "Nicky" Oppenheimer of De Beers yesterday and today. CJ will meet with the minister in the next couple days. The decision to drop the Section 17 actions simultaenously with the "heirs" dropping their action against the state occurred with the understanding of the DME. The speeches of both Dr. Maduna and his Deputy Ms. Shabango speak directly to the problem SUF is facing and suggest quick action. No developments occurred today, according to SUF in RSA and in Toronto. They are flabbergasted at the share price. Obviously, somebody either thinks something is about to happen, or knows of something, or someone with a great amount of resources has shorted SUF, or sold the stock down to force negotiations. I don't know. I've heard that De Beers has been looking at SUF for over a year and a half, but incredibly, not for M1, but Camafuca in Angola. This is the huge blue sky. I'm feeling rather beaten up, and will tip my hat to Gull and Infoman for being on the non-beaten up side. I don't like their methods, their gloating or their postings, but what the hell, as Gull says, his motivation is money, and I'm sure that his handlers at De Beers, or Anglo American, or First Rand (is that the name of the new company?) are pleased with the results. How about telling us who you really are, in order that you may further our education of things in RSA? However, the game is not over. If you got burned on margin, my sympathies, but try to hold on to the stock. SUF has an excellent long term legal position with regard to Marsfontein (if it comes to a protracted legal dispute, remember that the government granted prospecting licenses -- read up on the Mining Act of 1991 -- one of the fellows who drafted it has advised Randgold and SUF for years). In the short run, the worst case scenario is to walk away from Marsfontein. Thats not good, but its not worth the price De Beers was asking. Apparently, our good friends at De Beers wanted control of SUF in exchange for M1. CJ and his folks may have been outmanoeuvered in the short run, but they will not give away the company. The question of the government's seeming shifting in the wind is one that I really don't understand. Their public comments are obviously in the favour of the situation SUF finds itself regarding Marsfontein, they have the ability to act on their beliefs, but it hasn't happened. It seems that we'll soon see who runs RSA -- the government or De Beers/Anglo. Ya, we're down, beat up, but think back to the real value of SUF in the longer term, not the emotion of the moment. I think a real problem with SUF has been communication. With CJ in RSA, Lee Barker in Angola (til later this week) and the ongoing situation with Marsfontein, I think a fair criticism of SUF has been their lack of contact with shareholders and investors. As I've brought this up a number of times with management, I'm frustrated, but believe that they will quickly take steps to rectify this. I'm still long (and poorer for it) but believe firmly in the integrity of SUF management, and the long term plan to create value for shareholders. (It does seem pretty attractive now doesn't it?) Regards, Confluence