Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: VLAD who wrote (8933)	6/2/1998 7:31:00 PM
From: Robert D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Vlad PLEASSSSSEEEEEEEE, A phone call to a sister in law!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111 I'm long to but I think that's pushing it a bit to far....... Bob

To: VLAD who wrote (8933)	6/2/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Here is a copy of the information released yesterday by the Pain Webber Anal_yst: It came from First Call and is in its entirety below: 01:28pm EDT 1-Jun-98 PaineWebber (Charles Olsziewski (612)371-4157) VVUS VIVUS: LOWERING ESTIMATES DRAMATICALLY PW PW PW PW PW PaineWebber PW PW PW PW PW Rating=3 (VVUS) Closing Price=$9 1/4 Current FY EPS EST=$-0.55 (was +0.45) Next FY EPS EST=$1.00 (was 1.50) FY End=December 6/1/98 LOWERING VIVUS ESTIMATES DRAMATICALLY; DOMESTIC NEW PLANT APPROVAL IMMINENT -- REITERATE NEUTRAL RATING KEY POINTS 1. We are cutting our estimates for Vivus to a $0.55 per share loss from a profit of $0.45 for 1998, and to earnings of $1.00 per share from $1.50 for 1999. These dramatic reductions largely reflect the sharp reduction in domestic MUSE prescriptions since Pfizer's Viagra market launch. 2. We believe that the FDA will grant approval for the company's new manufacturing facility within the next week or two. 3. While the addition of incremental production capacity is a positive milestone for Vivus, the company has yet to demonstrate that it can revive domestic demand for the MUSE in the wake of the unprecedented success that Viagra has enjoyed. SUMMARY AND INVESTMENT RECOMMENDATION We are once again lowering our estimates on Vivus,* (VVUS), which markets MUSE. Investors may recall that we dramatically reduced our 1998 estimates shortly after the market launch of Pfizer's Viagra, the first oral medication for the treatment of erectile dysfunction, because we anticipated that it would cause a temporary dislocation in domestic MUSE prescriptions. While we continue to believe that Viagra's detrimental impact will be relatively short lived because the drug will not be effective in all individuals seeking treatment, the decline in U.S. prescriptions has been much more severe than we had been estimating. Since Viagra's launch, new MUSE prescriptions as reported by IMS America have fallen from about 8,000 for the week ended April 3 to 2,344 for the week ended May 22, a drop of roughly 70%. The company's domestic market share has also plummeted from 70% to 2%. We would note, however, that new prescriptions appear to be bottoming, given the most recently available data. Refill prescriptions have dropped somewhat less precipitously (about 40%), confirming our belief that the MUSE is an effective impotence treatment. In light of the weaker prescription trends in April and May, as well as our sense that lower-margined international shipments will be higher than were previously forecasting, we are cutting our estimates to a $0.55-per-share loss from a profit of $0.45 for 1998, and to earnings of $1.00 per share from $1.50 for 1999. For the quarter ending June 30, we are now looking for a loss of $0.42 per share, compared with our previous estimate of a $0.09 deficit. We do expect the FDA to grant approval to Vivus' new 90,000 square- foot production facility within the next week or two. Although the addition of incremental production capacity is a positive milestone for Vivus, the company has yet to demonstrate that it can revive domestic demand for the MUSE in the wake of the unprecedented success that Viagra has enjoyed. Our rating on VVUS remains neutral (3). PaineWebber Incorporated makes a market in this security. *PaineWebber Incorporated has acted in an investment banking capacity for this company. The information contained herein is based on sources we believe to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. PaineWebber Incorporated and/or Mitchell Hutchins Asset Management Inc., affiliated companies and/or their officers, directors, employees or stockholders may at times have a position, including an arbitrage or option position, in the securities described herein and may sell or buy them to or from customers. These companies may from time to time act as a consultant to a company being reported upon. Copyright ( 1998 by PaineWebber Incorporated, all rights reserved More information available upon request First Call Corporation - all rights reserved. 617/345-2500 END OF NOTE