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Technology Stocks : Semiconductor Industry Sales Trends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockaholic who wrote (29)	6/3/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: stockaholic	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 105

Semiconductor group sees 1.8 percent dip global sales (Rewrites with details, background, adds byline; pvs SAN JOSE) By Kourosh Karimkhany PALO ALTO, Calif, June 3 (Reuters) - Global sales of computer chips will decrease 1.8 percent to $134.6 billion in 1998 largely because of Asia's serious economic troubles, the Semiconductor Industry Association said on Wednesday. In addition to Asia, the industry is facing falling prices for semiconductor products, a last year's $45.8 billion total because of pricing pressures, the industry's main trade group said. ''The financial turbulence in Asia and other market changes has crimped the expected expansion of global chip markets in early 1998,'' SIA President George Scalise said in a statement. Recent news from major semiconductor companies backs up the forecasts. National Semiconductor Corp. (NSM - news) plans to lay off 1,400 people. Intel Corp. (INTC - news), the world's biggest chipmaker, expects flat revenue for the year and will eliminate 3,000 jobs through attrition, and Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT - news), the biggest equipment supplier to the industry, is offering voluntary severance packages to cut costs. The SIA and other forecasters had expected chip sales to grow in 1998 after a lackluster 1997. But the industry had a huge sales drop in the first quarter because of weak Asian currencies, slowing purchases by personal computer makers and falling component prices. First-quarter revenue declined 10.2 percent in the Americas, 4.9 percent in Europe, 11.5 percent in Japan and 9.7 percent in Asia, according to the SIA. Sales are improving in the second quarter, but not at a fast enough rate to offset the reduced orders in the previous quarter, the SIA said. The SIA also gave forecasts for specific industry segments: -- Sales of computer memory chips, known as DRAMS, are expected to drop 26.6 percent in 1998 to $14.5 billion. A huge worldwide glut, now in its third year, is expected to dissipate late in 1998. -- The increasing popularity of PCs that cost less than $1,000 will force microprocessor prices lower. Microprocessors sales are expected to be about the same they were in 1996, about $23.4 billion with 42 percent of all sales coming from the Americas. -- Digital Signal Processor, used in consumer electronics and telecommunication gear, will continue to grow rapidly. Sales are expected to rise 23 percent in 1998 to $3.9 billion. -- Geographically, Asia will be the weakest performer. Asia Pacific, which had been the hottest emerging sales market, will grow just 2.8 percent to $31.0 billion this year, after growing 9.6 percent in 1997. -- Europe will show the best gains, with sales increasing 5 percent to $30.5 billion by year end. In the Americas, sales will decrease 4.1 percent. Global sales will increase 17.2 percent in 1999 to $157.7 billion, 18.5 percent in 2000 to $187 billion, and 18.9 percent in 2001 to $222.3 billion, the SIA said.

To: stockaholic who wrote (29)	6/5/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: cbstock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 105

Hi stock!!! YOu know, I do not understand the whole computer industry dynamics now. Maybe it is the Y2K issue. There are about 250M PC'S in the world and about half of them are 486 or older. Companies just are not spending capital on new boxes and folks that are buying the low cost machines will not understand that they have crippled computers for a while. Actually, this is probably the most significant time in our lives to invest in technology and the whole computer industry. You are right about the capacity issue but what most of these companies totally overlooked was the capacity and the rapid dating of the technology. I have been in electronics since 1955 and the whole industry has changed several times. When I first began, vacuum tubes were high tech,Hi Fi, then transistors, stereo, ferite core computers, pocket calculators, and then the PC. I have owned and IMSAI, SOL, PET, Apple, AppleII, AppleIII, IBM, XT, 286, 386, 486, P5, and now a P2 266. All of this in the last 43 years and this has got to be the most exciting time in the history of man. It is an incredible ride and were are not eveeen to the first turn yet. I am learning to be patient with this cycle aspect because I have lived with this all my life. I am just now learning the reality of investing and "Riding IT Out". "It Is GREAT!!!!" There will be a great pent up demand because the software will drive the future.....I believe that guys like you and I will do just fine!!! Thanks for the post cb