To: Yakov Lurye who wrote (3166 ) 6/4/1998 11:20:00 AM From: Jerome Wittamer Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 60323
Yakov I think there's nothing wrong with this company and that they will be able to sell flash profitably even as it becomes a commodity. Nothing is ironclad, but their patents and the "no hype" conservative management style exhibited by Ely are good enough for me . I hope you're right that there is nothing wrong within the company. However, I don't think SanDisk will be isolated to the commodity effect MU, TXN, Samsung and LG Sem have known for the last 2 years with respect to DRAM. Margin shrunk so much as a result of excess capacity that most companies lost money. On the other hand we're 'far' from a commodity market, demand still outweighs supply and the use of flash memory as a storage media for digital application is not yet pervasive, it is only beginning! (I understand it is already in many homes in ovens,...). So, there's room for profit. A key risk IMHO, a real risk indeed is that the company fails to implement cost reduction programs, i.e. by failing to put in place the right processes in a timely fashion at the Taiwan facility. If they succeed however, profits are likely to creep up fast. Lower flash component prices coupled with high yields at the UMC could be a boon for SanDisk and FOR US! We'll know that before the end of the year, I guess we'll hear a word from the company on that subject in the 3rd Q report. This would bring more flexibility to SanDisk : fatter margins and room to cut prices dramatically...and compete with the giants. Small players like Lexar would likely be placed in a weak position. Regarding mgt style I must admit I agreed with your position for quite some time. He wants to build a major company. BUT limtex is totally right when showing his anger at a management which shows so little esteem for its shareholders. They'd better keep it private. Raising public money entails and requires at least some involvement in the 'investor relations' and giving some answers to their concerns. This could lead to a great discussion about the implications of short-term corporate governance as a result of an IPO and/or Sec.Off. but I don't think it is the right place. I wish I could discuss it with all of you, in relation with Sndk of course, so tell me whether you want to. Jerome