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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerome Wittamer who wrote (3172)	6/5/1998 9:26:00 AM
From: Yakov Lurye	Respond to of 60323

Jerome, Current DRAM woes give the word "commodity" bad connotations, but I personally had bought SNDK in hope that flash memory will eventually become a commodity. Transition to this status implies the initial period of rapidly growing demand and promises several good quarters/years for SNDK, especially with additional licensing revenues. Somewhere during this period, SNDK share price will appreciate considerably, and rational SNDK investors will be able to profit. Remember MU at 90? Nobody was complaining at the time that DRAM had become a commodity. Meanwhile, with digital photography growing and additional applications in the pipeline (note SNDK working with Nokia, Qualcomm etc.), I can't find (or had missed) any indications that SNDK is prepared to invest into capacity expansion. Does this mean that we are overestimating the demand? that SNDK has sufficient capacity to meet the increase in demand? that they plan to "farm out" production? that they look at royalties as the primary revenue stream? This is the area where additional company guidance would be indeed appreciated... As long as we are on the topic of overcapacity in certain sections of the semiconductor market, what are this thread's opinions on the barriers to entry into flash business? Does flash production require significant retooling in comparison with, say, DRAM production? What production volumes could justify such a transition? Is the learning curve steep? Does SNDK that had been in the business for a while enjoy better yields than the competition/licensees? Similarly, on the topic of patents - what do we know about alternative technologies for producing flash/MMC for the applications targeted by SNDK? I am not talking here about companies that are presumably infringing on SNDK patents, rather about companies like FLASHF that are seemingly pursuing other flash applications - do these technologies present a threat to the licensing revenue stream? Well, it is easy to ask questions - just wanted to bring up some topics for discussion. Meanwhile, with not much to go upon except SNDK previous record, I remain optimistic about this company outlook. Regards, Y.

To: Jerome Wittamer who wrote (3172)	6/19/1998 8:45:00 AM
From: Steve 667	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 60323

Jerome you putting words in my mouth. I am not angry. I am not saying anything about the market being right or wrong. Sandisk did not go up 40% in 3 days. It went up 30%. Regardless it is very unusual for a stock (selling over $10) to go up 16.9% one day and down 16.9% the next day. Sorry, but you will be hard pressed to list other stocks that have done this other than wild speculation such as Entre Med. THIS IS NOT NORMAL. It is certainly not a momentum breather! It is also unusual for a stock to go up that much in response to a company announcement then go down 16% BEFORE a negative announcement made after the market closes! You will also be hard pressed to name other stocks that have done this. It has happened, but it is NOT NORMAL! About the only thing that seems to gyrate this much is your opinion. A couple of weeks ago you wrote: "I think there's nothing wrong with this company and that they will be able to sell flash profitably even as it becomes a commodity. Nothing is ironclad, but their patents and the "no hype" conservative management style exhibited by Ely are good enough for me." "I hope you're right that there is nothing wrong within the company. However, I don't think SanDisk will be isolated to the commodity effect MU, TXN, Samsung and LG Sem have known for the last 2 years with respect to DRAM. Margin shrunk so much as a result of excess capacity that most companies lost money." "On the other hand we're 'far' from a commodity market, demand still outweighs supply and the use of flash memory as a storage media for digital application is not yet pervasive, it is only beginning! (I understand it is already in many homes in ovens,...)." "So, there's room for profit. " Then this morning you wrote: "CF is not profitable, MMC will not be any different. There are bigger players out there who waited for CF to establish itself and now they are killing SanDisk. Story repeats itself. Get out and find something else." Certainly your opinion does differ from mine, especially since you have so many of them. Indecision is the key to flexability, right. Anyway all this stuff was in the annual report! You wrote: "What will I say to my friends and family who trust me and see their money burnt in APSG, SMOD, SNDK?" Do you realize you are bordering on an almost perfect system for shorts! So certainly I welcome any other advice you may have about stock suggestions! Just kidding. Seriously, I do enjoy you posts very much, Jerome. Your's have been the best ones on this thread for a long time. I'm just having a little fun. We can use some about now, don't ya think? By the way the Sandisk chart looks identical to MU a couple of years ago! Deja Vu all over again, eh! I wish someone had told me about that Quote.com a year ago. Got any more sites that have more neat toys. My digital camera is broken. Well I have to go and get my raincoat in preparation for the blood bath. And to All. Remember, it's only a game. Steve 667 Neighbor of the Beast