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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mason Barge who wrote (5661)	6/3/1998 5:59:00 PM
From: David Rosenthal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Mason, This is one train that's not going to leave the station without me on board. My gut says that you are running to catch a train that is just arriving. There is a clear possibility of continuing worsening conditions in this sector for awhile. I keep learning the lesson about falling knives and am trying to steel myself to wait for a clear sign of bottoming. KLAC and PRIA dropping 6% and 8% scare me away (a case could be made for ASYST). With AMAT and NVLS still holding up, why do you think we are near a bottom? Dave

To: Mason Barge who wrote (5661)	6/3/1998 7:30:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

(very attractive prices but not quite done yet - as usual n/t bounces still very possible - n/t INTC earings warning connection) Mason: I think it is good to be a partial bull and a partial bear at this point. Don't put all the money in - but you are right there is some serious blood flowing now. Absolutely agree that we will be getting some monster orders for semi-equips sometime in next 2-3 quarters. BUT first we have to get some feel for chip demand and supply. Is demand declining? I actually think it is for the big PC sector - therefore it might be a bit early but again for a company like PRIA I think it is not a mistake buying say 20%-30% of what you want long term. Of course everytime we hit a low there will be n/t bounces. So the traders may have a ball with these stocks over the next few weeks and months. I'm upping the blood indicator to 45%. Still bearish but there definitely is "capitulation" (to use someone's very apt description) going on and it is accelerating so I don't fault those for getting into the really thrashed stocks here. I agree - easy double for many semi-equips in 12-18 months - I would venture to say triple or more actually in 18 months. N/t this is an INTC thing - INTC fell but has not got "thrashed" yet. The Merced announcement was part one of the one-two punch. The "two" is an earnings warning. If it comes then toast. If not then the semi-equip stocks will recover n/t. (I don't follow INTC so I do not know how they stated their Q2 expectations - that is I do not know if their numbers factored in all the disasters or made some assumptions of optimism. So I can't say whether INTC will warn.) At least definitely no FOMC uptick in July... Many of the smaller semis were dumped awhile back. The trick is when people leave them for dead. With some we are about 10% from being left for dead no more (but some others have a bit more to fall i/t). For a l/t investor 10% downside is not much downside risk IMO. shane.