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To: Broken_Clock who wrote (23357)	6/3/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: 007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

FWIW, here's a report about domestic violence in Iran yesterday. It is not related to crude prices. Global Intelligence Update June 4, 1998 Iranian Rebels Attack Three Sites in and near Tehran The Iranian rebel People's Mojahedin Organization (MKO) has claimed responsibility for three attacks in and around Tehran on June 2. According to MOK press releases, the group was responsible for a 2:00 p.m. (local time) bombing of the Revolutionary Prosecutor's Office in northern Tehran, an 8:30 p.m. mortar attack on the Central Command Headquarters of the Revolutionary Guards, east of Tehran, and a 9:30 p.m. mortar attack on the Defense Industries Organization in northern Tehran. The locations and times of the incidents suggest that there were at least two separate MKO teams involved. The Iranian news agency IRNA had previously reported only that an explosion had occurred in a Tehran courtroom due to improper handling of evidence in a trial, however the agency on Tuesday acknowledged the courthouse and Defense Industries Organization attacks. Iranian radio contradicted one of the MKO claims, reporting that an attempted attack on the Revolutionary Guards headquarters was thwarted. The MKO claimed that the headquarters assault resulted in Revolutionary Guard casualties and a panicked state of alert. Other reports out of Iran claim that the Ferdowski Hotel, located near the Foreign Ministry and military offices, was evacuated early Wednesday due to a bomb threat, but that no bomb was found. On Wednesday, IRNA claimed that the MKO attacks on the Islamic Revolution's Court and the Defense Industries Organization were attempts by the MKO to disrupt the rapprochement process between Iran and Iraq. IRNA claimed that the growing cooperation between the two countries threatened the very existance of the MKO. However, the news agency did make it a point to note that the MKO are based in Iraq, and that Iran has taken action against the group within Iraq in the past. The conservative Iranian newspaper "Farda" reported that approximately 50 members of the MKO had recently infiltrated Iran from Afghanistan in order to wage subversive operations. The MKO recently threatened to expand operations in Iran in conjunction with the heightened conflict between moderates and conservatives within the country. They renewed this threat in a press release claiming responsibility for yesterday's attacks. Iran's moderate and conservative factions have, in recent days, appeared to lay aside their differences and to appeal to a sense of national unity. On Wednesday, conservative Parliamentary Speaker Ali Akbar Nateq-Nuri again appealed for national unity, saying "There are signs that the counter-revolution, foreign bandits and spies have revived their work." "More than ever," said Nateq-Nuri, "we need unity in our ranks and coordination of all forces and factions, no matter what their leanings." Iran's leaders were evidently surprised by the wave of attacks, but they won't remain off balance for long. The country's moderate and conservative factions have managed to forge a brief truce in their political infighting, evidently to pursue a unified foreign policy. Iran has not only been pressing forward with diplomatic initiatives, Iranian troops have recently been engaged in massive military exercises, focused on offensive operations. MKO actions give Tehran a ready excuse to strike within Iraq. We expect them to take action against the rebels, soon and substantially. Whether Iran's recent military training is put to the test through a broader-ranging assault within Iraq is uncertain. The opportunity and justification are clear, the potential rewards are numerous, and the troops are positioned and ready.