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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (22441)	6/4/1998 9:48:00 AM
From: dwight vickers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

Raising interest rates for overvalued currencies would seem to have the opposite desired effect????? Not that governments ever get it right. Dwight

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (22441)	6/4/1998 2:18:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42771

(OFF TOPIC) GHOST OF 87 --- Currency & Market Timing "One of its major contributions has been the development of the concept of fundamental equilibrium exchange rates (FEERs), initially by John Williamson in The Exchange Rate System (1983). We and others have refined the concept over the years, most recently in Williamson's edited volume Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates (1994), and have attempted to estimate FEERs for individual countries. We have used the idea of FEERs as the analytical cornerstone of our policy proposals for currency target zones, as elaborated most recently in my Global Economic Leadership and the Group of Seven (1996, with C. Randall Henning). However, as noted in the present volume, FEERs have broader uses that are important whether or not one believes in applying them to target zones. The main purpose of the current study is to update the calculation of FEERs. Williamson's latest estimates, in the 1994 volume cited above, were for 1990. In this analysis, Simon Wren-Lewis and Rebecca Driver bring the estimates forward to 1995, when they found market rates to track the FEERs fairly well, and then project them to 2000 with results suggesting that a SUBSTANTIAL DOLLAR DEPRECIATION, implying appreciation of the yen and euro, LIES AHEAD...." ============== These guys advise the G7(8). So we now have a heavy hitter in the economic research field saying basically that the $$$ is overvalued. The only question now is whether accumulating GOLD is the best hedge against $$$ depreciation.

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (22441)	6/6/1998 8:08:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Paul: This isn't a direct quote, but you were wondering how many people got out when the market got so good....? For every buyer there is a seller. Collectively nobody EVER gets out of the market. The owners change names, period. As for you charging for advice...please Paul. I think your commentary is insightful, but I would leave the advice part to the side. If you want to play the advice game, start putting your balls on the line with actual recs on where Novell is going. I give away my points of view on Novell on this and one other thread. Haven't been active lately, but its certainly nice to see the old bears still thrashing around. Novell's entire potential has changed materially over the past year. If you want to know why, read some of my comments here and elsewhere. From where and why do you sit Paul? Why waste all this intelligence fighting a lost battle? Because that's why there's a market. Novell burned so many people for so long that it will carry them out prematurely BEFORE the big run-up begins. More will exit right into this unpcoming seond ride higher. You need bears for it to be a successful bullfight. Keep up the good work Paul. If I listened to you last fall, I'd still be in cash and eating fortune cookies with you and your friends. Good luck...