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Biotech / Medical : Sepracor-Looks very promising -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andreas Helke who wrote (877)	6/4/1998 7:41:00 PM
From: M. Ramle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Andreas: According to Lehman's Analyst, Sepracor is expected to earn approximately $5.75 per share in year 2002 based on a fully-diluted basis, with an additional $1.00 per share if Eli Lilly signs a joint-venture agreement for their Prozac ICE with Sepracor. One would expect the Company to come out and make an announcement of their knowledge (or no knowledge) of the reason behind this 30% drop in their Market Capitalization, which is not something to sneeze about. This recent drop in my opinion is more than just market weakness or correction. Some big Fund Manager is most likely bailing out of SEPR for whatever reason it is. Anyway, I personally don't foresee the price pick-up for quite sometime after this severe drop. Good Luck. Mazen

To: Andreas Helke who wrote (877)	6/4/1998 7:59:00 PM
From: David Howe	Respond to of 10280

A PE of 25 is probably about right. MRK sells for 30 x earnings. PFE sells for 60 x earnings. Both companies are in favor right now and the market could be considered overvalued. I think that 8.9 per share in earnings is very conservative. Looking at SEPR's pipeline, you can easily project 7 - 8 Billion in sales and 16.0 - 24.0 earnings. Certainly there are some unknowns, and, DW is no doubt taking this into account. By your calculations (25 x 8.9) you come up with a share price of around 220 in year 2003. Starting at a share price of 37 (today's close), the stock would appreciate at around 43% per year for the next 5 years. Of course, higher earnings per share would result in much higher growth of the stock price. The % increase in the price per share would be reduced if we enter a bear market, but, if you are going to invest in the market, show me a better investment than SEPR. Dave

To: Andreas Helke who wrote (877)	6/4/1998 9:30:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10280

Andreas, Do you have earnings estimates for 2001 and 2002 too? The MSDW forecast for 2001 is $6.18 (I think this is optimistic) and for 2002 is $6.92. All after tax, diluted. The Salomon Smith Barney estimate is $2.95 for 2001 and $5.00 for 2002, with 2003 not given. By the way a number of other non-penny biotechs were down sharply on no news on a day when biotechs were mostly only slightly down: Zonagen down 4 1/4 to around 27 (a favorite of short sellers) Intercardia down over 2 to 12 (this has really tanked over the last 2 months) Cooper Life Sciences down 3 3/8 to 38 And of course SEPR and PGNS, down 2 1/4 and 3 respectively. Peter Peter