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To: Lucretius who wrote (579)6/4/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: Thean  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14427
 
LT - I'm with Glen on DELL, and INTC as well for the same argument. There are a lot of other weaklings who are not the leaders in their respective space and if the funds need to dump anything those 2nd and 3rd tier guys are going to be punched first. The value funds will always want to keep the best in class companies as their bread and butter in their portfolios.

Your picks will need to rely on the black Monday scenario for maximum % gain..., and only if you can sell at the rock bottom before they recover because they are the first rung of companies for bottom fishing.



To: Lucretius who wrote (579)6/6/1998 10:13:00 AM
From: Thean  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14427
 
SEV, MU, and GTW

SEV - SEV received support again on Friday at its midline BB at $24 3/8. However, in order for SEV to march towards $30, it has to close above $26. So far, two flirts have both been unsuccessful. On Monday, SEV will likely close between an upside of $26 and downside of $24 1/2. If SEV closes either above or below that level, then a trend would emerge. Based on SEV's trading characteristics I believe the next trend is down. It will probably last about a month until anticipation of the next significant news like the flow test result of #2E and drilling result of #4E. The most significant clue comes from the instantaneous deflation of June 25 premium from 8% to 3% within an hour after the news release. There is this DLJ and possibly other brokerage recommendations to be issued next week so SEV may trend further up intraday but the close will be key to the immediate next few days as far trend goes.

MU - it again closed at its midline BB which is trending up. $25 is expected to give them resistence and that would complete their technical bounce. The techs are still rebounding amid short coverings and some speculative buyings. However, the consensus on the street is the techs will again tank and it becomes a timing issue rather than the whether issue. If they complete the technical bounce, then 2 days going into next week will be it and they will continue the slide especially if there are a barrage of preannouncement. However, there is this twist that the companies may not want to preannounce this time since their earning estimates have been repeatedly slashed week after week. In this scenario, a preannouncement like that of MOT may actually help stabilize the stock price. For now, MU's floor remains firmly at $22.

GTW - it broke the short term downtrend and it closed above $48 1/2. $50 would present a small resistence but I'm less sure. Am considering shorting GTW.