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Technology Stocks : Motorola (MOT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Time Traveler who wrote (1154)	6/5/1998 12:13:00 AM
From: Maher Sid-Ahmed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3436

To all: Read this intelligent response posted on zdiiboards.fool.com "Robroszk, The answer to your question has more to do with the market than the company. If you've hung around this board for long, you've read about the past mistakes of MOT. See the couple of posts above yours that have comments about CMDA. The market must see demand for a stock before the price goes up. The past couple of years the company has warned of dissapointing earnings and product problems and then produced them. The market generally only has one leader in an industry. Right now the company that has the short term history of sucess is Ericsson. It gets the premium. This is a real time lesson in value investing. The random walk theory says that all stocks in a free market are properly valued. The value theory says that some stocks are out of favor at any time and the market undervalues them. MOT looks like a strong company with all the right tools to recover its leadership position in its industry. If you agree, then the stock is a value player's delight. If you are a random walk believer, the past mistakes mean the stock price must stay down. The Siemens rumor shows what the market thinks of the stock right now. If the company is being taken over by someone bigger, the parts value pushes the stock up. But the announcement of a big contract has much less impact. The random walk (or maybe momentum) players are in control. $60 is a matter of time. IMHO $100 is a matter of time. The issue here is the path to each. A value player is willing to wait for the rest of the market to come on board. That time is for accumulation. Eventually the earnings will turn around, the WISE will climb on board, then as the price starts up the momentum players will climb on board. About that time, the value players sell. A big run up makes the stock a candidate for a big correction. Any bad news gets a lot of random walk players and all the momentum players out. The result can be really bad, and value investing is not about crashing with a friend. (Look at a chart of AGAM to see what it looks like when the momentum players get out) Since I have to accumulate cash to buy more stock, I'm in no hurry to see the WISE rush in. There are already several people recommending this stock. The longer it takes before it goes up, the more I will own. Be patient and you should be very happy. Damguy" Recommended as a buy by John Dessauer, and X% of the company shares were bought by Prince Walid - who seems to have done well with all his purchases. If you are on Margin, then I guess this is not a good time to hold onto the stock, otherwise on the long term I think this company will recover and the share price will go to new highs. Maher