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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (19935)	6/5/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Gene, And what would be the chances that AMAT wouldn't use some of that cash it has in reserve to vigorously buy back shares to reduce the amount available in the float. Do you think that would support the stock price above $20? Remember the officers of AMAT have lots of shares in their portfolio's (according to the annual report) and they are losing money as the price drops also. I can't see them letting the price drop too low, after all they are trying to maintain "shareholder" value.8^)

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (19935)	6/5/1998 12:25:00 AM
From: akidron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

different reasoning but a similar conclusion... I expect 19, but 13 wouldn't amaze me if the market goes ker-plunk...

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (19935)	6/5/1998 1:29:00 AM
From: Henry D	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Agree with many on this board about their analysis of the bottom...i remember 1996 when almost every semi equip stock traded at single digit PE....it was totally ridiculous....dirt cheap!!! But unfortunately, I feel this slump is more fundamentally severe than 1996. in 1996 we had an oversupply of DRAM. 1998 we have an oversupply of DRAM, Asian currency crisis, President Clinton's potential impeachment, Nukes in Pakistan, Russia threatening to sell nukes unless they get IMF bailout money, anti-trust feds, etc. the list goes on and on. If anything, I dont see it impossible for us to return to single digit PE. if all of the above bad news stabilizes or resolves the bottom opinion would be around 25-26. if several of the above events escalates at the same time, then i think 12-14 would be possible. lets hope this sector turns around within the next few months

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (19935)	6/5/1998 3:01:00 PM
From: Dennis	Respond to of 70976

Eugene, thank you very much. You make a lot of sense. I will wait.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (19935)	6/5/1998 6:13:00 PM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

The question to Eugene: "Anyone PLEASE!!I would love to get back into this fine company. Is there a consensus on where the possible bottom is?? Where is the most resistance??" And his response (less lots of snipp): "Hope this helps... remember that these are potential prices and are realistic. But just my opinion." Oh man, this is just the question I have been pondering the past several days. I was all set to buy--in fact had put in an order to purchase AMAT at 32 through an electronic broker. Fortunately for me, I forgot to enter the authorization code because the stock went from that price to 29! That's the point at which I lost some nerve and have been holding tight asking the 'how low is reasonable to expect' question. So again, thanks to the questioner and Gene for the thoughts--they will help me in my decision-making. David Todtman