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Strategies & Market Trends : TA Science Projects & Experimental Indicators -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ftth who wrote (173)6/5/1998 11:38:00 PM
From: ftth  Respond to of 237
 
[Why the Chaikin A/D doesn't include the open]:
(From an interview with Marc Chaikin in TASC)
--------------------------------
Did you continue to research other techniques?

I had already been looking more closely at using volume and demand supply analysis in particular. I became very familiar with the work of Larry Williams, Joe Granville, R.W. Mansfield and David Bostian. I started monitoring the Williams accumulation/distribution line and a three-day/10-day oscillator of that line. That was as good a technique as any for spotting short-term entry points and divergences between price action and volume on a daily basis.

How many stocks did you follow?

I was doing the computations by hand, which limited me to following only 20 to 30 stocks. It was a lot of work each day. If I went on vacation, it was just agonizing to get caught up after we got back. I ran into a problem in 1974, when the newspapers stopped carrying the opening price for stocks that I needed for some of the indicators. So I developed a new oscillator that didn't need the opening. This oscillator used volume and the relationship between the closing price and the day's price range. It became known as the Chaikin oscillator, which is in most software technical analysis packages today.



To: ftth who wrote (173)6/6/1998 10:19:00 AM
From: Spots  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 237
 
Now you're beginning to tell me something I didn't know (yes,
I understand the dividends, not a problem). However,
it appears either that Ms. Green had a sex-change operation
or that Mr. Blue had a color-change operation in the middle <g>,
or something. Anyhow, I got a little lost by Mr Green
in the library with the candlestick chart, so let me try to
restate it; please correct as necessary:

1. A owns 100 XYZ in a margin account at broker (i). XYZ
has (i) as the owner of record, and (i) keeps the 100 XYZ
FBO A.

2. B places an order with (i) to short 100 XYZ, so (i)
borrows 100 XYZ from B.

3. (i) crosses the trade with cash customer C (raking
off the spread), and C requests delivery of the certificate.

4. (i) surrenders the borrowed shares to XYZ who
transfers ownership from (i) to C and issues a
certificate to C. (i) charges C a large fee for
the service.

5. The annual XYZ stockholder meeting is scheduled,
and in due course management solicits proxies from
shareholders of record.

Ok, stop the clock. Let's assume that (i) has no other
holders of XYZ (which is probably against the rules as
it would correspond to a zero reserve requirement, but
assume it for the moment, for discussion).

What I interpret from your post is that A doesn't get
a proxy, since (i) doesn't have any XYZ left to vote FBO
A. B, of course, would never get a proxy (a negative
proxie ?<G>). C gets a proxy directly from XYZ management
being a stockholder of record. Correct so far?

More generally, suppose broker (i) had 100,000 XYZ in
margin accounts when B shorted 100 shares, and suppose no
other customers of (i) are short XYZ. Then (i) has
99,000 XYZ left after delivering 100 to C (via XYZ
transfer agent). Now (i) has 99,000 shares to vote FBO
margin account holders. (i) presumably designates
SOMEBODY (or bodies more generally) who won't get a vote
or who will get a vote. Is there a published procedure
for this? A lottery (probably rigged)
like assigning option exercises? Are there rules about
this? or does each broker roll his own?

Ok for votes; now for the float. In the original example
((i) delivers 100 sh from A to C) you might argue that
the float isn't increased because there are really only
100 XYZ available on the market. C clearly can sell his
100 shares, but if A tried to sell, (i) would make B cover,
which would take 100 shares off the market as A's 100
shares came on, a net of 100 shares (100 from A, 100 from C,
-100 from B).

BUT more generally, (i) may have 99,000 XYZ left and can
easily supply A with 100 shares to sell while C sells his
100, and B is still short (like a bank making a loan
without hitting the Fed reserve limit). OR (i) may have
a deal with broker (ii) to borrow XYZ (like a bank
borrowing from the Fed to meet reserve requirements).

Either of these moves actually increases the number of
shares available on the open market, in the exact same
way that bank loans increase the money supply. Of course
if ALL the shares were marketed at once it would collapse
in a vicious short squeeze (just like a bank gets squeezed
if demand depositors all try to take their money out),
but that doesn't happen too often.

I'd call this increasing the float. Maybe not quite as
smooth as the Fed, but a very similar procedure. If that's
wrong, how so?

Spots



To: ftth who wrote (173)6/6/1998 7:39:00 PM
From: ftth  Respond to of 237
 
[Corrections to post #173 and #175]

In post #173:
Starting at "As far as voting rights,..."
Replace all Mr Green's with Mr Blue's.

In post #175:(correction in bold):

2. B places an order with (i) to short 100 XYZ, so (i)
borrows 100 XYZ from A.

and, from "More generally...." onward, replace the 99,000's with 99,900's.

dh