To: george willse who wrote (298 ) 6/6/1998 4:47:00 PM From: Frank A. Coluccio Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 609
George, I agree in large part with your reply to Bruce, but I have some questions and comments concerning items 4 and 5. >>4) 7 million will not come close to getting the job done<< What is the desired construction you are referring to resulting from such a buildout, and how much do you think it should cost? 7 MM is not far off for a virtualized infrastructure. The latter would yield lower, but faster returns that a physical one. Whereas a physical one could run into the tens of millions or more. What is the targeted infrastructure you are referring to here? The more money that is wisely spent investing in infrastructure, particularly fiber routes, the longer the period of payback, but the higher the eventual returns. This has been demonstrated time and again through modeling which demonstrates the relative long term impact of renting T1s / T3s versus owning the glass. Today, indefeasible right of use (IRU) of wavelengths made possible through DWDM by the larger carriers is now more feasible than owning a physical strand used to be not too long ago, and this makes the most sense on the higher-density routes, obviously. When amortized over ten or fifteen years, the cost of a T1 then becomes measured in tens of dollars per month, as opposed to thousands, over long distances. This is what is now permitting the 10 and 12 cpm calls to the UK from CONUS end users using _traditional_ high-quality channelized technologies. >>5) The major telecom alliances/mergers are a real threat now, whereas the majors at one time didn't have a clue as to the importance of the telecom/internet synergy<< I wouldn't go quite that far, although your point is well taken. The science and technology labs of every respectably sized LEC and IXC have been tuned in to VoIP and other voice over X [packet] variants for a long time. That's their business. Some will argue that based on their extensive study of the technology, that is precisely why they haven't elected to use it. Of course, there are other more influential factors which have blocked its use altogether, to date, but even those are starting to fall apart under (1) the pressure of competition and (2) the willingness of users to settle for less quality. I attribute the latter in large part to users becoming accustomed through conditioning, often having to endure long waiting times for downloads on the 'Net, and a generally degraded set of expectations from electronic media, including Windows desktop systems crashing, LAN download delays, etc., in general. My theory is that tolerance to degraded quality tends to increase proportionately to its exposure, in other words. My talks with some entrenched BOC and even some large CLEC engineers have consistently revealed that the fact is that they regard the technology as still too immature, because it cannot yet meet the service level quality expectations that still serve as branding staples for them. FWIW, and, Regards, Frank Coluccio